International risk of food insecurity and mass mortality in a runaway global warming scenario

Richards, Catherine E.; Gauch, H.L.; Allwood, Julian M.

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2023.103173

Cited by 18 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 100 publications

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“…Using a linear programming model, it calculates the global optimum efficiency score, denoted as Ψ and referred to as GTFP in this study. For the DMU 0 , the objective function and constraints of the EBM model are given as follows in Equation (1).…”

Section: Ebm Model and Gtfpmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Smart Cities and Greener Futures: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in China’s Smart City Construction

Yu,

Gao

2024

Sustainability

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As the digital economy becomes the new engine of economic growth, China has introduced a series of smart city policies aimed at promoting high-quality and sustainable urban development. This paper aims to evaluate the green development effects of China’s “Smart City Pilot” policy and to explore the heterogeneity of policy effects across different types of cities. Using panel data from 283 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2020, this study examines the relationship between smart city construction policy and urban green development efficiency using the green total factor productivity (GTFP). We employ the Causal Forest and mediation effect models to estimate the impact of smart city pilot policy on GTFP and explore the underlying mechanisms. The main results are: (1) The smart city pilot policy significantly enhances urban GTFP, a finding consistent across diverse policy evaluation approaches. (2) The influence of the policy on green development varies among cities, and such heterogeneity is effectively captured by the Causal Forest. (3) This varied impact primarily stems from urban location factors and inherent characteristics. Notably, the policy effect in Eastern China outpaces that in other regions. The policy yields greater green benefits with financial development and medical capital rises, but excessive government public expenditure curtails its positive influence. (4) The mediation mechanisms through which the smart city pilot policy promotes green development exhibit certain differences between the “high-effect group” and the “low-effect group”. The former predominantly leverages innovation-driven and agglomeration effects, while the latter chiefly relies on industrial structural advancement and rationalization.

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Section: Ebm Model and Gtfpmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent global climate change issues have become increasingly severe, with dire consequences for agriculture, socio-economics, and human well-being [1]. This trend threatens the sustainable development of human society.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Smart Cities and Greener Futures: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in China’s Smart City Construction

Yu,

Gao

2024

Sustainability

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“…Dampak dari adanya pemanasan global (global warming) di muka bumi diantaranya adalah dibeberapa wilayah bisa mengalami peningkatan kekeringan (Richards et al, 2023;Kim et al, 2023) atau sebaliknya sering terjadi bencana banjir (Bouchard et al, 2023), kebakaran dilahan hutan (Natole et al, 2021), pemutihan (bleaching) terumbu karang, naiknya muka air laut secara perlahan, dan meningkatnya berbagai kondisi cuaca ekstrem, termasuk badai yang dapat merusak sistem alami dan buatan wilayah tersebut (Liu et al, 2021).…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Analisis Karakteristik Iklim Dan Hujan Pada Lahan Pertanian Di Kecamatan Kediri Kabupaten Lombok Barat

Pamungkas,

Iemaaniah,

Bustan

2023

Agroteksos

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The availability of water on Earth's surface is influenced by rainfall and climate in a particular region. Water is a basic necessity for human beings and is used for various daily life purposes. One of these purposes is irrigation in agricultural lands. The agricultural sector has traditionally relied on the availability of water from rainfall and the suitability of the climate. Climate factors include air temperature, humidity, sunlight intensity, and wind speed. This research aims to determine the impact of rainfall and climate conditions on agricultural lands. The study utilizes descriptive analysis of climate data and its influence on agricultural lands. The research findings reveal that the average monthly rainfall in Kediri district, West Lombok Regency, is approximately 222.75 mm. The average temperature is 26.7 degrees Celsius, with an average humidity of 84.5%, average sunlight intensity of 65.9%, and an average wind speed of 3.1 knots. These rainfall and climate conditions can affect water availability, soil microbe growth, plant photosynthesis processes, and plant pollination processes in agricultural lands.

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“…About five trillion tons of fossil carbon are available in the Earth's crust. If humanity collectively burned all of that, global mean surface temperature would increase by up to 10 • C relative to the pre-industrial era [57,58] and could threaten human extinction [62]…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Human Deaths to Guide Energy Policy

Pearce,

Parncutt

2023

Energies

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When attempting to quantify future harms caused by carbon emissions and to set appropriate energy policies, it has been argued that the most important metric is the number of human deaths caused by climate change. Several studies have attempted to overcome the uncertainties associated with such forecasting. In this article, approaches to estimating future human death tolls from climate change relevant at any scale or location are compared and synthesized, and implications for energy policy are considered. Several studies are consistent with the “1000-ton rule,” according to which a future person is killed every time 1000 tons of fossil carbon are burned (order-of-magnitude estimate). If warming reaches or exceeds 2 °C this century, mainly richer humans will be responsible for killing roughly 1 billion mainly poorer humans through anthropogenic global warming, which is comparable with involuntary or negligent manslaughter. On this basis, relatively aggressive energy policies are summarized that would enable immediate and substantive decreases in carbon emissions. The limitations to such calculations are outlined and future work is recommended to accelerate the decarbonization of the global economy while minimizing the number of sacrificed human lives.

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International risk of food insecurity and mass mortality in a runaway global warming scenario

Cited by 18 publications

References 100 publications

Smart Cities and Greener Futures: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in China’s Smart City Construction

Smart Cities and Greener Futures: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment in China’s Smart City Construction

Analisis Karakteristik Iklim Dan Hujan Pada Lahan Pertanian Di Kecamatan Kediri Kabupaten Lombok Barat

Quantifying Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Human Deaths to Guide Energy Policy

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