International trade and business cycle synchronization in Poland, the European Union and the Euro Zone

Abstract

The analysis of business cycle synchronization levels has become a key point in the discussion of the processes of international economic integration. Economists show a particular interest in analyzing the frequency of processes of business cycle convergence and divergence (decoupling) in the European Union, especially in the Euro Zone. One of the factors determining business cycle convergence in economies is the intensity and structure of international trade. The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence exerted by international trade over the synchronization of business cycles in Poland, the European Union and the Euro Zone from 1995 to 2011. The analytical methods employed here encompass a review of the literature on macroeconomics and international finance, as well as econometric models (such as the Vector Autoregression Model). The results of empirical research indicate that an increase in trade turnover does not necessarily lead to greater business cycle synchronization in the economies under analysis. In fact, the impact of an increase in countries’ turnover on the synchronization of their business cycles depends predominantly on the structure of trade turnover and not solely on the intensity of trade

On the Relative Importance of Corporate Working Capital Determinants: Findings from the EU Countries

“…Despite the greater business cycle correlation in the Eurozone (Misztal, 2013) Theoretically, the examined countries represent bank-oriented financial systems. However, many empirical findings tend to question the importance of the financial system, arguing that the role of banks as capital providers decreases systematically (Corbett & Jenkinson, 1996;Mayer, 1988;1990;Mayer & Alexander, 1990;Edwards & Fischer 1994).…”

Can Intra-Regional Trade Act as a Global Shock Absorber in Africa?

“…On the other hand, even diversified economies with high share of intraindustry trade tend to experience similar shocks. This may be explained partly because outputs in sectors with high intraindustry trading tend to be more synchronised (see Misztal, 2013, for findings on emerging Europe and Rana, 2007, for Asia).…”

The analysis of export trade between Ukraine and Visegrad countries

“…Main tendencies and perspectives of export and import activities of Ukraine are outlined, for instance, in Deineko et al (2015), Didkovskaya (2013), Kukharska (2016), Lomeiko (2015), Mudrak (2014), and Syvanenko and Toropkov (2015). Some authors use specifi c methods and approaches to analyze country's international trade.…”

“…An econometric model is used for the analysis of the factors determining agricultural and food trade of Poland with other EU countries. Misztal (2013) analyzes international trade and business cycle synchronization in Poland and the European Union. The researcher considers the intensity and structure of international trade and their impact on business cycle, presenting a review of the literature on macroeconomics and international fi nance, as well as econometric models (such as the vector autoregression model).…”