Accurate prediction of which patient will progress from a sub-clinical Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to active tuberculosis represents an elusive, yet critical, clinical research objective. From the individual perspective, progression can be considered to be the product of a series of unfortunate events or even a run of bad luck. Here, we identify the subtle physiological relationships that can influence the odds of progression to active TB and how this progression may reflect directed dysbiosis in a number of interrelated systems. Most infected individuals who progress to disease have apparently good immune responses, but these responses are, at times, compromised by either local or systemic environmental factors. Obvious disease promoting processes, such as tissue-damaging granulomata, usually manifest in the lung, but illness is systemic. This apparent dichotomy between local and systemic reflects a clear need to define the factors that promote progression to active disease within the context of the body as a physiological whole. We discuss aspects of the host environment that can impact expression of immunity, including the microbiome, glucocorticoid-mediated regulation, catecholamines and interaction between the gut, liver and lung. We suggest the importance of integrating precision medicine into our analyses of experimental outcomes such that apparently conflicting results are not contentious, but rather reflect the impact of these subtle relationships with our environment and microbiota.