Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve between economic growth and chemical fertilizer surpluses in China: a provincial panel cointegration approach

Abstract

This study investigated the relationship between fertilizer nitrogen (N) and phosphate (P) surpluses and economic development on the regional level in China. With a balanced panel dataset covering 30 provinces of mainland China from 1988 to 2019, we employed panel cointegrating polynomial regression (CPR) analysis using fully modified OLS (FM-OLS) estimators. Our results suggested that all provinces exhibit a long-run cointegrated relationship between fertilizer surpluses and real per capita gross regional product (GRP). A total of 22 provinces out of 30 showed a significant inverted U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Among those, 14 provinces are considered to have reached the peak and 8 provinces are considered to be before the peak. The group-mean turning points on the EKC are CNY 7022, CNY 9726, CNY 4697, CNY 3749, and CNY 5588 per capita GRP (1978 = 100) for the Northeast, Northcentral, Middle, and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Southwest and Northwest China, respectively. The overall turning point of China is CNY 6705 per capita real gross domestic product (GDP), which was reached in circa 2012. This shows a general improvement of chemical fertilizer management in China. However, six provinces still exhibit linear growth in fertilizer surpluses when the economy grows. These regions are characterized by high cash-crop ratios and are mostly located along the southeast coast. Therefore, more effort and attention should be given to these regions to promote further fertilizer reduction. At the same time, nutrient use efficiencies should be improved, especially for cash crops such as fruit and vegetables.

Economic Development and Pesticide Use in EU Agriculture: A Nonlinear Panel Data Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

“…The number of studies focusing on agrochemical consumption as an index of environmental degradation in the EKC framework is limited [2]. Despite the different sources of environmental degradation within the agricultural sector mentioned above, the extended use of pesticides entails significant risks for humans and the environment in general unless they are used with caution; in that case, numerous advantages have been reported.…”

“…More specifically, their use contributes not only to hunger reduction but also to food security sustainability [1]. Long-term studies have unveiled that pesticides are responsible for 40 to 60% of crop yields in temperate climates, like those of most EU countries [2].…”

“…The environmental problems caused by the excessive use of pesticides are characterized by complexity, given that these harmful substances may pose a danger to the health of their users and consumers, along with water impairment, soil acidification, and air pollution, that may well lead to a regime of diminishing returns in yield improvement [2,3]. All of the above issues can be addressed with the mediation of novel technologies and the cooperation of specialists from different scientific fields [4].…”

What Driving Gross Domestic Product of Agriculture? Lessons from Indonesia (2014-2021)

“…As a result, the government's strategy through the provision of subsidized fertilizers shows a strong role for the growth of agricultural inputs. At the regional level in China, panel data involving 30 provinces has proven to be very dependent on chemical fertilizers, which have a linear ratio to agricultural yields to increase per capita GDP in agriculture [73]. Fertilizer policy support is the main key in crop production and increasing agricultural welfare in China, Russia, Indonesia and India [74].…”

Technical Efficiency of Maize Production and Its Influencing Factors in the World’s Largest Groundwater Drop Funnel Area, China

“…It is worth noting that X i includes two key inputs-irrigation costs and chemical fertilizer use. Some empirical literature has reported that there is a nonlinear relationship between the above two inputs and agriculture production [40,41]. Therefore, quadratic terms of irrigation costs and chemical fertilizer use were incorporated into the analysis.…”