2021
DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2111.12196
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Investigating the risks of debris-generating ASAT tests in the presence of megaconstellations

Abstract: The development of large constellations of satellites (i.e., so-called megaconstellations or satcons) is poised to increase the number of LEO satellites by more than an order of magnitude in the coming decades. Such a rapid growth of satellite numbers makes the consequences of major fragmentation events ever more problematic. In this study, we investigate the collisional risk to on-orbit infrastructure from kinetic anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon tests, using the 2019 India test as a model. We find that the proba… Show more

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“…As for larger-sized debris, most of them are formed by explosions, including rocket upper stages, auxiliary engines, and satellites. Kinetic anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon tests also generate significant amounts of space debris, and even form a dangerous debris field, increasing the risk of collision with satellites [2,3]. By 2019, more than 139 million pieces of space debris had been detected [4].…”
Section: Introduction 1backgroundmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…As for larger-sized debris, most of them are formed by explosions, including rocket upper stages, auxiliary engines, and satellites. Kinetic anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon tests also generate significant amounts of space debris, and even form a dangerous debris field, increasing the risk of collision with satellites [2,3]. By 2019, more than 139 million pieces of space debris had been detected [4].…”
Section: Introduction 1backgroundmentioning
confidence: 99%