Investigation of Future Land Use Change and Implications for Cropland Quality: The Case of China

Abstract

Cropland loss resulting from land use change has drawn great attention in China due to the threat to food security. However, little is known about future magnitude and quality of cropland of China. In this study, the dynamic conversion of land use and its effects model (Dyna-CLUE) together with the Markov model and the potential yield data were used to simulate the influence of land use change on cropland quality in the next two decades under three scenarios. The results indicate that, under the trend scenario, the high-yield and medium-yield cropland would decrease and the low-yield cropland would increase between 2015 and 2030. The crop yield would decrease by 1.3 × 109 kg. Under planned scenario, high-yield and medium-yield cropland would decrease and the low-yield cropland would increase, and total crop yield would stay almost unchanged. Under the cropland protection scenario, the high-yield cropland would reduce slightly, and the medium-yield and low-yield cropland would increase substantially. The crop yield would increase by 5.36 × 1010 kg. The result of this study will help decision-makers to develop reasonable land use policies to achieve the goals of harmonious development between food security, economic growth, and environmental protection.

Assessing Rice Production Sustainability under Future Landuse and Population in Deli Serdang Regency, Indonesia

“…By controlling the plantation expansion and urban development, the riceland can reach 31% of the total area in 2040. Some previous studies also confirm how important the spatial restriction on riceland maintains food sustainability in their region (Minh et al 2019;Wang et al 2019).…”

“…Fortunately, rice production sustainability in the future can be enhanced, the PRP scenario could serve as an appropriate solution to mitigate the food loss although only 60% of districts were classified as having a high and very high level of sustainability. This would be possible due to the higher rice production from every district to fulfil the rice consumption and also the implementation of the spatial restriction to guarantee the area of riceland against a decrease (Wang et al 2019).…”

“…However, the CA model has no power to compute the interactions between the drivers of landuse change, whereas the Dyna-CLUE model has the advantages of as it can specify the details of landuse change scenarios through the model parameters. Since the Dyna-CLUE is based on a probabilistic logistic regression method, which analyzes landuse systems as a complex multi-level system at the interface of multiple social and ecological systems (Salazar et al, 2020), it can simulate better the landuse change under designed-scenarios by taking into consideration of driving forces, spatial policies and restriction zone (Wang et al 2019).…”

The Imprint of Built-Up Land Expansion on Cropland Distribution and Productivity in Shandong Province

“…The existing studies on built-up land expansion and cropland variation include cropland intensification and area change [10,11], intensity analysis of land use conversion [12,13], displacement [14][15][16], abandonment [17,18], projections of future change [19][20][21][22][23] and so on. At the global scale, Bren d' Amour et al (2017) projected future urban expansion and the implications for cropland.…”

The Intensity Analysis of Production Living Ecological Land in Shandong Province, China

“…The urbanization rate increased from 39.2% in 2001 to 59.01% in 2015 [37,38]. A large area of high-quality cropland has been occupied by built-up land, and this trend may continue in the future [39]. Economic development has posed challenges to the ecological environment.…”