Irrigation water releases and Anopheles culicifacies abundance in Gujarat, India

Konradsen, Flemming; Stobberup, Kim; Sharma, Surya K.; Gulati, O.T; Hoek, Wim van der

doi:10.1016/s0001-706x(98)00059-x

Cited by 15 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…Our model as described above was validated using many observations in the study area obtained from published data (Ono, 1992;Dev, 1996;Konradsen et al, 1998;Lee et al, 2002;Chen et al, 2002;Overgaard et al, 2002;Toma et al, 2002;Singh et al, 2004;Yeom et al, 2005;Chen et al, 2006;Rueda et al, 2006). The main results of the model validation are summarized below.…”

Section: Validation Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Although the root mean square errors between the observed and modeled values for these dates were approximately 25 days, the values were acceptable for simulating the potential mosquito distribution, because the mosquito occurrence observations were repeated over several weeks to a few months, as described previously (Dev, 1996;Konradsen et al, 1998;Overgaard et al, 2002). During comparison of the more detailed observation data at representative sites, which ranged from temperate to subtropical zones (Ono, 1992;Konradsen et al, 1998;Lee et al, 2002;Toma et al, 2002), the model was able to estimate seasonal patterns of occurrence of mosquitoes with reasonable accuracy (Kashiwada & Ohta, 2010). In addition, the geographical distributions of the northern limit of the mosquitoes in Monsoon Asia obtained from this model were corroborated by the observed distributions in summer (Kashiwada & Ohta, 2010).…”

Section: Validation Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Possible Effects of Future Climate Changes on the Maximum Number of Generations of Anopheles in Monsoon Asia

Ohta¹,

Kaga²

2011

Climate Change - Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects

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Section: Validation Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Validation Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible Effects of Future Climate Changes on the Maximum Number of Generations of Anopheles in Monsoon Asia

Ohta¹,

Kaga²

2011

Climate Change - Geophysical Foundations and Ecological Effects

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“…4). The root mean square errors (RMSE) between the observed and modeled values for these dates werẽ 15 to 20 d. These values were acceptable for a simulation of the potential mosquito distribution, because the mosquito occurrence observations were repeated over periods ranging from several weeks to a few months (Dev 1996, Konradsen et al 1998). The present model has an improved accuracy that is approximately twice that of the previous model (Kashiwada & Ohta 2010), reflecting the modification of the energy and water balances in the present model.…”

Section: Model Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We tested the predictive power of the ECD-mg model by comparing the model estimations to real observational data from many independently published datasets, which ranged from cool-temperate to subtropical or tropical zones (Ho et al 1965, Yoshida et al 1974, Dev 1996, Ikemoto 1996, Konradsen et al 1998, Lee et al 2002, Toma et al 2002, Oo 2003, Yeom et al 2005, Stoops et al 2009). These data are collected only from seasonal observations of Anopheles >1 yr, in order to verify that the ECD-mg model can describe seasonal variations, even though in most developing countries there are very few observations throughout the year (Martens & Thomas 2005).…”

Section: Model Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of climate on malarial vector distribution in Monsoon Asia: coupled model for Ecophysiological and Climatological Distribution of mosquito generations (ECD-mg)

Ohta¹,

Kaga²

2012

Clim. Res.

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ABSTRACT:The relationship between the life cycle and climate conditions of the malaria vector mosquito Anopheles was modeled in order to describe its temporal and geographic distribution at a fine resolution. Since the mosquito grows through immature life stages in an aquatic environment, the model was designed to express the surface moisture conditions conducive to the mosquito's growth. The development of the mosquito was estimated using either air or water temperature, depending on the developmental stage of the mosquito's life cycle. To achieve this, the previous model was modified in order to improve the estimation of the water conditions of its habitat. As a result, the modified model was able to predict seasonal patterns of occurrence of Anopheles at representative sites with a more reasonable degree of accuracy than the previous model. This model was then applied using simple climate data in order to obtain the geographic distribution of the occurrence of various species of Anopheles in Monsoon Asia. The most notable results of the simulated spatio-temporal emergence of the Anopheles mosquito is that although the modified model did not include unique parameters of each species, distribution was clearly divided into sub-regions for each dominant species that corresponded to the climate conditions.

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“…By increasing surface water levels, irrigation modifies ecohydrological conditions of the landscape, creating more standing bodies of water for longer periods of time (5), thereby increasing the abundance of mosquito breeding sites and adult vector populations (6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13). In addition, agricultural development can increase the frequency of human-vector contact, when human labor and mosquito breeding seasons are synchronized (14), and promotes migration to newly irrigated areas (15), thus changing the spatial scale of malaria transmission.…”

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confidence: 99%

Long-lasting transition toward sustainable elimination of desert malaria under irrigation development

Baeza¹,

Bouma

Dhiman

et al. 2013

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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In arid areas, people living in the proximity of irrigation infrastructure are potentially exposed to a higher risk of malaria due to changes in ecohydrological conditions that lead to increased vector abundance. However, irrigation provides a pathway to economic prosperity that over longer time scales is expected to counteract these negative effects. A better understanding of this transition between increased malaria risk and regional elimination, in particular whether it is slow or abrupt, is relevant to sustainable development and disease management. By relying on space as a surrogate for stages of time, we investigate this transition in a semidesert region of India where a megairrigation project is underway and expected to cover more than 1,900 million hectares and benefit around 1 million farmers. Based on spatio-temporal epidemiological cases of Plasmodium vivax malaria and land-use irrigation from remote sensing sources, we show that this transition is characterized by an enhanced risk in areas adjacent to the trunk of the irrigation network, despite a forceful and costly insecticide-based control. Moreover, this transition between climate-driven epidemics and sustained low risk has already lasted a decade. Given the magnitude of these projects, these results suggest that increased health costs have to be planned for over a long time horizon. They further highlight the need to integrate assessments of both health and environmental impacts to guide adaptive mitigation strategies. Our results should help to define and track these transitions in other arid parts of the world subjected to similar tradeoffs.vector-borne diseases | agricultural development | epidemic malaria | irrigation gradient | environmental health

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Irrigation water releases and Anopheles culicifacies abundance in Gujarat, India

Cited by 15 publications

References 2 publications

Possible Effects of Future Climate Changes on the Maximum Number of Generations of Anopheles in Monsoon Asia

Possible Effects of Future Climate Changes on the Maximum Number of Generations of Anopheles in Monsoon Asia

Effect of climate on malarial vector distribution in Monsoon Asia: coupled model for Ecophysiological and Climatological Distribution of mosquito generations (ECD-mg)

Long-lasting transition toward sustainable elimination of desert malaria under irrigation development

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