Is All That Talk Just Noise? The Information Content of Internet Stock Message Boards

Antweiler, Werner; Frank, Murray Z.

doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2004.00662.x

Cited by 1,831 publications

(844 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…It is represented by such authors as Wysocki (1998), Tumarkin and Whitelaw (2001), and Dewally (2003) who studied easily measurable characteristics of message boards, such as message volume and user ratings, as well as by those conducting sentiment-based analyses: Antweiler and Frank (2004), Bissattini and Christodouolu (2013), Kim and Kim (2014). Although their findings are inconclusive, they are promising in terms of the association between market sentiment and key stock market parameters.…”

Section: Sentiment Analysis Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Can Social Media Content Increase Financial Market Returns? Survey Results from Poland

Cwynar

Pater

2017

Organizacija

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Background and Purpose:In recent years classic financial market theory based on decision makers' rationality has been challenged by repeated anomalies that became a 'new normal'. As a result, what we witness today is a considerable turn to behavioral concepts that can shed a new light on choices made by market participants. The astonishing development of social media accelerated scientific validation of such concepts, since the media opened new and capacious 'laboratory space' for testing behavioral hypotheses. The main purpose of the article is to examine whether financial market professionals believe that social media content can be useful in achieving additional financial market returns and to investigate the factors behind this belief. Design/Methodology/Approach: We surveyed a sample of over 400 financial market professionals at institutions operating in Poland, and analyzed the results using logit regression models. Results: We established that almost 60% of the surveyed finance professionals recognized the potential of social media for achieving additional returns. We also found out that the differences in respondents' perception of this potential could be explained mainly by heterogeneity of their job experience and, to a lesser degree, by their job position. Interestingly, more experienced individuals were less likely to recognize this potential. Firm-specific factors did not have a significant effect on the dependent variable. Conclusion: The opinions of financial market professionals regarding the link between social media and additional returns are mixed, which is consistent with the current body of evidence brought by sentiment-based research. Our findings confirm the key role of previous experience in explaining attitudes towards novelties and innovations (such as social media), a phenomenon known from other fields and everyday experience.

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Section: Sentiment Analysis Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Can Social Media Content Increase Financial Market Returns? Survey Results from Poland

Cwynar

Pater

2017

Organizacija

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“…Lay-investors are thought to be 'noise traders', are irrational, and are closely linked to the many deviations from market efficiency that researchers have identified. Internet-based information sources are unreliable, prone to 'pump-and-dump' manipulation (Sabherwal, Sarkar, & Zhang, 2011);Antweiler andFrank (2004:1260) suggest that people posting on internet message boards are the 'real world counterparts of the noise traders that are so often invoked in financial theory'.…”

Section: A 'Performed' Lay-investormentioning

confidence: 99%

‘Elephants can’t gallop’: performativity, knowledge and power in the market for lay-investing

Roscoe

2014

Journal of Marketing Management

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“…Due to the limitations in spam emails, newer tactics such as social media and discussion boards were adopted mainly because these channels allow more freedom of speech. Other researchers [7]- [11] have found the relation between FDB comments and market performance. FDB comments can be manipulative and affect the share prices.…”

Section: Pump and Dump And Share Price Based Fdbsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Research from recent years highlighted that the comments on FDBs were found manipulative and positively related to the market returns, volatility and trading volumes [7]- [11]. However, there has been very little attempt [5], [6] made to build tools for monitoring and detection of potential financial crimes on share price based FDBs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Novel Methods for Resolving False Positives during the Detection of Fraudulent Activities on Stock Market Financial Discussion Boards

Lee¹,

Owda²,

Crockett³

2018

ijacsa

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Abstract-Financial discussion boards (FDBs) have been widely used for a variety of financial knowledge exchange activities through the posting of comments. Popular public FDBs are prone to being used as a medium to spread false financial information due to larger audience groups. Although online forums are usually integrated with anti-spam tools, such as Akismet, moderation of posted content heavily relies on manual tasks. Unfortunately, the daily comments volume received on popular FDBs realistically prevents human moderators to watch closely and moderate possibly fraudulent content, not to mention moderators are not usually assigned with such task. Due to the absence of useful tools, it is extremely time consuming and expensive to manually read and determine whether each comment is potentially fraudulent. This paper presents novel forward and backward analysis methodologies implemented in an Information Extraction (IE) prototype system named FDBs Miner (FDBM). The methodologies aim to detect potentially illegal Pump and Dump comments on FDBs with the integration of per-minute share prices in the detection process. This can possibly reduce false positives during the detection as it categorises the potentially illegal comments into different risk levels for investigation purposes. The proposed system extracts company's ticker symbols (i.e. unique symbol that represents and identifies each listed company on stock market), comments and share prices from FDBs based in the UK. The forward analysis methodology flags the potentially Pump and Dump comments using a predefined keywords template and labels the flagged comments with price hike thresholds. Subsequently, the backward analysis methodology employs a moving average technique to determine price abnormalities and backward analyse the flagged comments. The first detection stage in forward analysis found 9.82% of potentially illegal comments. It is unrealistic and unaffordable for human moderators or financial surveillance authorities to read these comments on a daily basis. Hence, by integrating share prices to perform backward analysis can categorise the flagged comments into different risk levels. It helps relevant authorities to prioritise and investigate into the higher risk flagged comments, which could potentially indicate a real Pump and Dump crime happening on FDBs when the system is being used in real time.

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Is All That Talk Just Noise? The Information Content of Internet Stock Message Boards

Cited by 1,831 publications

References 48 publications

Can Social Media Content Increase Financial Market Returns? Survey Results from Poland

Can Social Media Content Increase Financial Market Returns? Survey Results from Poland

‘Elephants can’t gallop’: performativity, knowledge and power in the market for lay-investing

Novel Methods for Resolving False Positives during the Detection of Fraudulent Activities on Stock Market Financial Discussion Boards

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