Is Economic Recovery a Myth? Robust Estimation of Impulse Responses

Teulings, Coen N.; Zubanov, Nick

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1597603

Cited by 33 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…In all the OLS LP regressions (and in the AIPW LP outcome regression, see below) we include an AR(4) term for the growth rate between t‐ l and t‐1‐ l . The term

β_{3 h} \sum_{h = 1}^{h} d_{i, t + h}

captures the Teulings and Zubanov (2014) correction. The leads are included to avoid the bias that results from overlapping forecast horizons.…”

Section: Estimation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, it is better suited for estimating non‐linear or state‐dependent impacts, like, in our case, the stance of fiscal policy. In estimating our models, we follow Teulings and Zubanov (2014) and include the leads of the reform dummies. This approach alleviates the bias caused by overlapping forecast horizons.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second, we control for the endogeneity of reforms. Third, we include treatment leads to alleviate the bias from overlapping forecast horizons as proposed by Teulings and Zubanov (2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of product and labour market reform on growth: Evidence for OECD countries based on local projections

Haan

Wiese

2022

J of Applied Econometrics

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This paper examines the impact of labour and product market reforms on economic growth in 25 OECD countries between 1985 and 2013, and tests whether this impact is conditioned by the fiscal policy stance, i.e. whether there are fiscal expansions or adjustments. Our local projection results suggest that controlling for endogeneity of reforms and the stance of fiscal policy is crucial. To control for endogeneity, we use the Augmented Inverse Probability Weighted estimator. Our results suggest that product market reforms mostly cause slight negative growth, except when implemented during periods of neutral fiscal policy. Labour market reforms hurt growth under tight and neutral fiscal policy but are conducive to economic growth if introduced during periods of expansionary fiscal policy.

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“…In all the OLS LP regressions (and in the AIPW LP outcome regression, see below) we include an AR(4) term for the growth rate between t‐ l and t‐1‐ l . The term

β_{3 h} \sum_{h = 1}^{h} d_{i, t + h}

captures the Teulings and Zubanov (2014) correction. The leads are included to avoid the bias that results from overlapping forecast horizons.…”

Section: Estimation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of product and labour market reform on growth: Evidence for OECD countries based on local projections

Haan

Wiese

2022

J of Applied Econometrics

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“…This approach is particularly suited to assess the dynamic response of the variable of interest in the aftermath of a shock (Ramey & Zubairy, 2018) and is an alternative way to estimate IRFs without specifying a vector autoregressive model (Autoregressive‐Distributed Lag or ADL). ADL models tend to be sensitive to some misspecifications, such as choosing the number of lags (Teulings & Zubanov, 2014) and long‐lasting effects of shocks may be unduly found, reflecting the use of what Cai and Den Haan (2009) call one‐type‐of‐shock models. Instead, the local projection method does not impose the dynamic restrictions embedded in ADL models, and it is particularly suited to estimate non‐linearities in the dynamic response.…”

Section: Data and Empirical Strategymentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID‐19 and tourism: What can we learn from the past?

2021

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The impact of the COVID‐19 crisis on tourism flows is without precedent in terms of speed and severity. In this paper, we try to infer a possible future scenario for the tourism sector, evaluating the medium‐term effects of past pandemics on tourist arrivals. We find that pandemics lead to a persistent decline in tourist arrivals, with the effects being larger in developing and emerging countries. Interestingly, the effects are heterogeneous across countries and episodes, and depend on several economic conditions such as the overall health system performance, the severity of the shock, and the uncertainty induced by the pandemic event.

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“…The GFC is associated with permanent declines in industrial production, investment and productivity, and this applies to both companies (Ahn, Duval & Sever, 2018), industries (Dell'Ariccia, Detragiache & Rajan 2008Kroszner, Leaven & Klingebiel, 2007) and the macroeconomic scale (Cerra & Saxena, 2017;Kołodko, 2020). As it was, the GFC caused a reduction of the external R&D financing channel, patent and innovation financing by blocking long-term corporate investments, hindering the return of economic activity to the original path of growth (Cerra & Saxena, 2008, 2017Furceri & Zdzienicka, 2011;Reinhart & Rogoff, 2009;Teulings & Zubanov, 2014). In the process of restricting the external financing of innovations in the crisis, an actual reallocation of bank loans from innovative to non-innovative companies was observed because of excessive risk coming with innovative activity (Hall & Lerner 2010;OECD, 2012;Benoliel & Gishboliner, 2015;Markatou & Vetsikas, 2015;Nanda & Nicholas, 2014;Aghion, Askenazy, Berman, Cette, & Eymard, 2012;de Ridder, 2019;Peia, 2019).…”

Section: The Reality Of the Crisis In The Light Of The Covid-19 Pande...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Crisis and Innovations: Are they Constructive or Destructive?

Okoń-Horodyńska

2021

Studies in Logic, Grammar and Rhetoric

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An interdisciplinary approach was used to analyse multicomplex issues of the Covid-19 crisis, demonstrated also by the Economics of innovation. The Economics of innovation is useful when analysing a unique feedback of megatrends and the emergence of liminal crisis innovations. The purpose of this paper is, in spite of many statements to the contrary, to prove that innovative activity may serve as the key to unlocking a post-crisis economic development. Analyses presented in the paper are based on the Polish and foreign literature on the subject, reports on research conducted in many research centres and the author’s own observation at the Social Innovation Council. Three research themes are signalled: 1) the reality of the crisis in the aspect of Covid-19 pandemic and other crises in the literature studies and in practice; 2) innovation as the driving force for recovering from the Covid-19 crisis; 3) Coronavirus support: the activity of the state and social expectations. Conclusions and recommendations contained in this paper are, to a large extent, based on hermeneutics; they also stem from statistical data analyses and own research.

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Is Economic Recovery a Myth? Robust Estimation of Impulse Responses

Cited by 33 publications

References 31 publications

The impact of product and labour market reform on growth: Evidence for OECD countries based on local projections

The impact of product and labour market reform on growth: Evidence for OECD countries based on local projections

COVID‐19 and tourism: What can we learn from the past?

Crisis and Innovations: Are they Constructive or Destructive?

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