Is Eradication of the Pinewood Nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) Likely? An Evaluation of Current Contingency Plans

Abstract

The pinewood nematode (PWN) is one of the worst tree-killing exotic pests in East-Asian countries. The first European record of establishment in Portugal in 1999 triggered extensive surveys and contingency plans for eradication in European countries, including immediate removal of large areas of conifer host trees. Using Norway as an example, we applied a simulation model to evaluate the chance of successful eradication of a hypothetical introduction by the current contingency plan in a northern area where wilting symptoms are not expected to occur. Despite a highly variable spread of nematode infestations in space and time, the probability of successful eradication in 20 years was consistently low (mean 0.035, SE 0.02). The low success did not change significantly by varying the biological parameters in sensitivity analyses (SA), probably due to the late detection of infestations by the survey (mean 14.3 years). SA revealed a strong influence of management parameters. However, a high probability of eradication required unrealistic measures: achieving an eradication probability of 0.99 in 20 years required 10,000 survey samples per year and a host tree removal radius of 8,000 m around each detection point.

Inter-species interactions and ecosystem effects of non-indigenous invasive and native tree-killing bark beetles

“…A delay in detection of beetles can be expected since immigration often may go undetected even when pheromone traps are used. Once alien pest species have become established in their new habitats, they may be extremely difficult to eradicate, and the costs of damage and control programmes may be high (Pimentel 2002;Haack et al 2010;Kovacs et al 2010;Økland et al 2010). Even though there are examples of successful eradications of invasive species (Simberloff 2009), we are not optimistic about eradicating highly mobile and productive alien bark beetles after they have become established in forests.…”

Dispersal capacity of Monochamus galloprovincialis, the European vector of the pine wood nematode, on flight mills

“…; Økland et al. ). For example, in Europe, proposals have been put forward to limit the extension of the PWN range through contingency plans, including precautionary clear‐cuts of all susceptible trees in a radius of 500 m around a detected infected tree and a survey of newly infected trees in a buffer area with a radius of 20 km (Anonymous ).…”

Emerging Diseases in European Forest Ecosystems and Responses in Society

“…Preventing establishment is, however, extremely difficult as can be exemplified by the introduction of the pine wood nematode, Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, in Europe [81]. The pine wood nematode originates from North America and has been found to kill pines and larch of susceptible species outside its native range.…”