Is the interannual variability of summer rainfall in China dominated by precipitation frequency or intensity? An analysis of relative importance

Lu, Er; Ding, Yudan; Zhou, Bing; Zou, Xu‐Bo; Chen, Xianyan; Cai, Wenyue; Zhang, Qiang; Chen, Haishan

doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2822-8

Cited by 24 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…The reasons may be a fact that daily extreme precipitation defined with the threshold of 95% is already sufficiently strong while the frequency corresponding to the strong intensity is relatively small. Therefore, a little change in frequency may lead to a complete different trend (Lu et al, , ). The increasing trend in extreme precipitation intensity and frequency might means more floods in Southeast China, while decreasing extreme precipitation intensity and frequency might resulted in water resource shortage in North China and Northeast China.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Change in Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Precipitation and its Possible Teleconnection With Large‐Scale Climate Index Over the China From 1960 to 2015

Deng

Jiang

et al. 2018

JGR Atmospheres

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Understanding the change in intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation plays an important role in flood risk mitigation and water resource management in China. In this study, we analyzed the abrupt changes and long‐term trends in extreme precipitation intensity and frequency over China from 1960 to 2015 based on daily precipitation from stations. The possible teleconnection with large‐scale climate index was also been investigated. The major results are as follows: (1) 14.72% and 23.51% of all the stations over China have a change point in intensity and frequency, respectively. Moreover, most of change points occurred after 1975. (2) Extreme precipitation intensity and frequency show similar significant change trends, with a decreasing trend along the strip extending the northeast to southwest direction and an increasing trend in the two sides of the strip; 56.44% and 66.23% of all the stations shows the increasing trends in intensity and frequency. (3) Large‐scale climate indices have more influences on frequency rather than intensity. Especially, Dipole Mode Index with 1 year ahead has significantly positive correlation with extreme precipitation frequency in most areas of China, except for South China.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Change in Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Precipitation and its Possible Teleconnection With Large‐Scale Climate Index Over the China From 1960 to 2015

Deng

Jiang

et al. 2018

JGR Atmospheres

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“…To examine which one is relatively more important in inter‐annual variability of precipitation, a simple method based on linear regression is adopted from Lu et al . (, , ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of variability and trends of precipitation extremes in Singapore during 1980–2013

Wang²

2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

100

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Changes in precipitation extremes in the tropical urban context is complex, where the precipitation activities are influenced by the combined effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), global warming and local effects. This study presents a comprehensive framework to investigate the variability and trends in precipitation extremes in a tropical urban city-state, Singapore, based on a set of extreme indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The long-term trends in the precipitation extremes over the period from 1980 until 2013 are examined using an iterative-based Mann-Kendall trend test. Besides, the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variability of wet-day precipitation totals is investigated. Finally, the correlations between precipitation extremes and three potential large-scale and local factors, i.e. ENSO, global mean temperature and local temperature are analysed based on linear regression method. Results reveal that annual wet-day precipitation totals, as well as average wet-day precipitation intensity, have increased significantly, accompanied by a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes in Singapore. The inter-annual variability of wet-day precipitation totals is mainly dominated by precipitation intensity. Significant correlations are found between precipitation extremes and all the three factors, and the signature of local effects is more evident than global warming. These findings have implications for adaption planning and disaster risk reduction in Singapore in the context of global warming.

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“…Considering the above definitions, R is equivalent to PRCPTOT, T to R1mm and P to SDII. As stated in Lu et al (2016), the relation between R, T and P can be approximated by a linear regression, R = aT + bP + c. The coefficients a and b represent the change rates of precipitation R regarding its frequency T and intensity P, respectively. The coefficients a and b are calculated by using least squares based on the data of T and P. Then, the scale variations of T and P are defined by the standard deviation of T and P. Therefore, the products of the change rates and corresponding variation scales are used to measure the scales of change in R by T and P (Lu et al, 2010;2014;2016).…”

Section: Dominance Of Frequency and Intensity In Precipitation Varimentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends and variability of precipitation extremes in the Peruvian Altiplano (1971–2013)

Huerta

Lavado‐Casimiro

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Precipitation extremes have been investigated throughout the last decades in different regions of the Andes. However, little attention has been paid to the Altiplano region (Central Andes), especially to the Peruvian Altiplano (PA) that represents a complex area and is highly vulnerable to extreme events, such as floods and droughts, driven by the strong variability of precipitation. This study focuses on the analysis of 11 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) in the period 1971-2013. In this context, commonly used statistical trend and break analyses were applied and a false discovery procedure was used in order to reduce the number of artificial significant tests. Additionally, the relative dominance of precipitation frequency and intensity in interannual precipitation datasets was determined. Finally, the correlation between EPIs and six oceanic-atmospheric indices were analysed. The results indicate that there is no significant global trend towards wet or dry conditions in the PA, although a signal of a more slightly decrease of precipitation is presented in the Southern PA. Additionally, interannual variability of total precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation frequency. The Central Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature plays a major role for the maximum and average length of wet periods as well as for total precipitation. This finding is particularly relevant for the southwestern PA. Our results have important implications for risk management and adaptation planning related to extreme hydrological events in the PA.

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Is the interannual variability of summer rainfall in China dominated by precipitation frequency or intensity? An analysis of relative importance

Cited by 24 publications

References 44 publications

Change in Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Precipitation and its Possible Teleconnection With Large‐Scale Climate Index Over the China From 1960 to 2015

Change in Intensity and Frequency of Extreme Precipitation and its Possible Teleconnection With Large‐Scale Climate Index Over the China From 1960 to 2015

Analysis of variability and trends of precipitation extremes in Singapore during 1980–2013

Trends and variability of precipitation extremes in the Peruvian Altiplano (1971–2013)

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