Is the problem or the solution riskier? Predictors of carbon tax policy support

Abstract

Climate change is posing significant threats to human societies and developmental prospects. Governments continue to design and propose comprehensive climate policies aimed at tackling the climate crisis but often fail to successfully implement them. One reason is that securing public support for such policy instruments has proven to be challenging. While public opinion research has often documented a positive correlation between beliefs in climate change and policy support, it has also become clear that the presence of such beliefs is in many situations not enough for policy support. This is the starting point of our study in which we delve deeper into the link between climate change beliefs and policy support by specifically integrating risk perceptions related to climate change but also related to policy solutions. Empirically, we leverage survey data from the United States and Switzerland and employ the random forest technique to further explore the mechanisms that link climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and policy support. We use the case of carbon taxation, which is considered a particularly effective instrument by ecological economists but seems to be particularly unpopular politically. The results of this study suggest that beliefs and risk perceptions are very important predictors of support for carbon tax policies. Furthermore, they unveil the strongest predictors and specific patterns that generate the highest support in the United States and Switzerland.

Investigating Public Support for the Carbon Generalized System of Preference through the Lens of Protection Motivation Theory and Information Deficit Model

“…In response to climate change, governments worldwide have agreed to protect the environment and reduce pollution and carbon emissions [4][5][6]. With this aim, many countries have established and enforced various intervention measures and policies, both at the enterprise and individual level [7][8][9][10], to reduce carbon emissions [11][12][13][14][15]. Among these, policies associated with personal carbon emission reduction have become more prevalent, as the rise in carbon emissions due to humans' excessive and unsustainable production and lifestyles accounts for a significant portion of total carbon emissions [3,9,[16][17][18][19].…”

“…Public support for environmental policies refers to how individuals orient themselves to the government's policies through their attitudes or behaviors [12,15,37,38]. These non-activist pro-environmental behaviors are essential for far-reaching and long-lasting policy implementation [4,24,[39][40][41].…”