Is there a blue transition underway?

Abstract

In this study, we describe what we term a Blue Transition, defined as the passage from fish biomass reduction to recovery in exploited aquatic resources, enabled by aquaculture. A Blue Transition is a key component of emergent “blue” discourses which support that the expansion of aquaculture would relieve pressure on declining capture fisheries, thus contributing to global food security, particularly of the poorest populations. Based on global secondary data and the case of Chile, we explore the evidence of such claim and the implications of a Blue Transition for fisheries and aquaculture development. In 2012, worldwide aquaculture production surpassed wild captures; nevertheless, such turnaround would have not taken place without China's contribution. In Chile, this turnaround occurred in 2014, concurrently with the lowest industrial landings registered since the 1960s (1,227,359 tons). Chile's aquaculture is not relieving wild fisheries or satisfying food demands of the lower income population, in the country or elsewhere. Salmon, the main aquaculture product, is destined mainly to Japan, Russia and United States where, due to its high prices, it is consumed mostly by wealthy consumers. For the case at hand, evidence suggests that a blue transition may be underway but is going in the wrong direction: from what may have been sustainable fisheries management before the 1970s to the overexploited wild fisheries of today.

The search for blue transitions in aquaculture‐dominant countries

“…(2019). We included the “aquaculture‐dominant (inclusive of seaweeds)” subset in recognition that aquaculture does not necessarily need to supply a substitute for fisheries in terms of food, but blue transitions may also be achieved through aquaculture providing alternative livelihoods to fishing activities (Nahuelhual et al., 2019). To be included in statistical analysis, every country must have produced aquaculture for at least half of the time series (19 years) and have complete data for all predictor variables from the data sources listed to produce a balanced model.…”

“…Blue transitions, a concept that is part of current discourse related to the “Blue Economy” and “Blue Growth,” describe a process where wild populations can rebound as a result of aquaculture growth displacing human food demands (Nahuelhual et al., 2019; World Bank & United Nations Department of Economic & Social Affairs, 2017). Such a transition could in theory initiate when wild fish biomass declines, which can be the result of overexploitation, habitat degradation and/or environmental change (e.g.…”

“…With limited room for additional wild production (FAO, 2020b), how aquaculture may benefit from or contribute to changes in fisheries production and regulation remains unclear (Stoll et al., 2019). In particular, as aquaculture continues to grow and provide other options for fish supply, and production further surpasses that of wild capture, the intuition is that fishing pressure on wild populations may be able to be further reduced (Nahuelhual et al., 2019).…”

“…Various mechanisms, not solely those that are consumer‐driven, could underpin a shift towards aquaculture dominance in the seafood sector, and Nahuelhual et al. (2019) outline four potential pathways towards blue transitions. A “ fish scarcity” pathway posits that declines in availability of wild‐caught fish will inflate prices, drive the search for alternatives through aquaculture growth and motivate reform for the fisheries sector that allows the recovery of wild fish stocks.…”

“…Nonetheless, blue transition pathways remain theoretical and the capacity for reduced pressure on wild fish populations as a result of aquaculture growth in countries where aquaculture has reached sufficient scale is unclear. For example, in Chile where aquaculture continues to grow rapidly and now represents an equivalent production biomass to capture fisheries, there is little evidence to suggest that fishing pressure is declining (Nahuelhual et al., 2019). On the other hand, blue transition theories have yet to be systematically tested across multiple nations.…”