Is There a Future for Nuclear Power? Wind and Emission Reduction Targets in Fossil-Fuel Alberta

Abstract

This paper explores the viability of relying on wind power to replace upwards of 60% of electricity generation in Alberta that would be lost if coal-fired generation is phased out. Using hourly wind data from 17 locations across Alberta, we are able to simulate the potential wind power output available to the Alberta grid when modern, 3.5 MW-capacity wind turbines are spread across the province. Using wind regimes for the years 2006 through 2015, we find that available wind power is less than 60% of installed capacity 98% of the time, and below 30% of capacity 74% of the time. There is only a small amount of correlation between wind speeds at different locations, but yet it remains necessary to rely on fossil fuel generation. Then, based on the results from a grid allocation model, we find that CO2 emissions can be reduced by about 30%, but only through a combination of investment in wind energy and reliance on purchases of hydropower from British Columbia. Only if nuclear energy is permitted into the generation mix would Alberta be able to meet its CO2-emissions reduction target in the electricity sector. With nuclear power, emissions can be reduced by upwards of 85%.

Production risk caused by human factors: a multiple case study of thermal power plants

“…Besides, investigation on risk in thermal power plants so far has focused on non-human related factors including those in construction, fuel supply, market demand (Potluri and Rajan 2010), operation conditions (Zhang et al 2006), monitoring systems (Chang et al 2010), and environmental policies (Abadie and Chamorro 2009). Some researchers have conducted comparative studies in different kinds of power plants, and focused on distinctions in risks due to differences in production processes (e.g., Verbruggen 2008;Wolf 2015;van Kooten et al 2016). These studies reveal that while risk at nuclear power plants could potentially lead to major catastrophic accidents, in general, thermal power plants appear to be more troublesome.…”

“…By considering the cost, prices, operation and potential accidents, Verbruggen (2008) examines the appropriateness of nuclear, fossil fuels and renewable sources as future sources for power generation, and suggests that the level of acute operational risks is high, manageable and tiny in nuclear, fossil fuels and renewable sources respectively, that renewable sources can be more financially competitive than nuclear sources, and that fossil fuels have extreme negative impacts on the climate and environment. Renewable energy is a better option than thermal power and nuclear power, but power plants that generate electricity using renewable energy such as wind power plants, cannot be supplied with enough input at all time (van Kooten et al 2016) and there are currently not sufficient numbers of them in operation to replace thermal and nuclear power plants in electricity generation.…”

“…Consistent with Sheikhalishahi et al's (2017) study on thermal power plants, we also find that human factors are sources of risk in equipment maintenance. Besides these previously examined production risks, thermal power plants, one of the least environmentally friendly power plants (Wolf 2015;van Kooten et al 2016), offer us an opportunity to notice the importance of human factors in environmental conservation decisions. As these plants have less automated system controls than nuclear power plants, hydropower plants and wind power plants, we can also see ordinary workers' effects on risk in manual operations and technical improvements; where more procedures depend on human judgment, it emphasizes human factors' influence on production risks in raw materials selection, equipment purchase, and ground inspection.…”

“…Accidents and improper behavior in power plant production procedures may have significantly negative impacts from air and soil pollution to destruction, death and long-term impacts on surrounding communities and environment (Friedman 2011;Arab et al 2015;Rodriguez-Iruretagoiena et al 2015;Ofori-Parku 2016;Tanić et al 2016). Many researchers recognize the importance of efficient and safe production in power plants and much research has been done on managing risk and reducing uncertainty in production procedures (e.g., Feili et al 2013;Islam and Nepal 2016;van Kooten et al 2016;Zhao et al 2016). However, since different energy sources have different production procedures, research findings are specific to the type of power plant under consideration.…”

“…However, since different energy sources have different production procedures, research findings are specific to the type of power plant under consideration. For example, in wind power systems, one of the greatest challenges is the energy source supply process, which relies on sufficient wind power (Karki et al 2012) and wind speed forecasting (van Kooten et al 2016). On the other hand, in a thermal power plant system, besides the general supply (quantity) of heat, the quality and price of the energy source also involve risk (Zhao et al 2016;Majoumerd et al 2017).…”