Is There Any Teleconnection Between Surface Hydrology in Poland and El Niño/Southern Oscillation?

Niedzielski, Tomasz

doi:10.1007/s00024-010-0171-4

Cited by 15 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Although the above-mentioned analysis is entirely qualitative and rather subjective, it offers an initial assessment on how prediction techniques are vulnerable to the minor ENSO signal in SW Poland detected earlier by Niedzielski (2010a). It can be inferred from the aforementioned analysis that the best prediction performance is found for peak flows which are not preceded by ENSO episodes.…”

Section: Winter and Spring Peak Flow Forecasting Vs Ensomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The selection criterion has been based based on the 99% discharge quantile attained at Malczyce site (580 m 3 /s) and at Scinawa site (670 m 3 /s). According to Niedzielski (2010a), winter or early spring peak flows in Poland can be somehow (rather weakly) controlled by ENSO. The selected peak flow events, the corresponding maximum discharges and information on the preceding ENSO conditions are listed in Tab.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These extensive analyses have shown that such links exist in winters after the occurrence of warm and cold ENSO episodes and are driven by shifts of the North Atlantic cyclone tracks. There have also been the attempts to investigate ENSO-hydrology teleconnections for some European regions (Rimbu et al, 2004;Karabörk and Kahya, 2009;Niedzielski, 2010a). In the context of Polish hydrology, this body of knowledge has been expanded by Niedzielski (2010a) who provided a detailed examination of such associations for southwestern (SW) Poland by integrating numerous geodetic and geophysical ENSO indices (e.g.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There have also been the attempts to investigate ENSO-hydrology teleconnections for some European regions (Rimbu et al, 2004;Karabörk and Kahya, 2009;Niedzielski, 2010a). In the context of Polish hydrology, this body of knowledge has been expanded by Niedzielski (2010a) who provided a detailed examination of such associations for southwestern (SW) Poland by integrating numerous geodetic and geophysical ENSO indices (e.g. length of day, axial component of atmospheric angular momentum, Niño 3.4 index, Southern Oscillation Index) with discharge time series.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Empirical Hydrologic Predictions for Southwestern Poland and Their Relation to Enso Teleconnections

Niedzielski¹

2010

Artificial Satellites

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ABSTRACT. Recent investigations confirm meaningful but weak teleconnections between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and hydrology in some European regions. In particular, this finding holds for Polish riverflows in winter and early spring as inferred from integrating numerous geodetic, geophysical and hydrologic time series. The purpose of this study is to examine whether such remote teleconnections may have an influence on hydrologic forecasting. The daily discharge time series from southwestern (SW) Poland spanning the time interval from 1971 to 2006 are examined. A few winter and spring peak flows are considered and the issue of their predictability using empirical forecasting is addressed. Following satisfactory prediction performance reported elsewhere, the multivariate autoregressive method is used and its modification based on the finite impulse response filtering is proposed. The initial phases of peak flows are rather acceptably forecasted but the accuracy of predictions in the vicinity of local maxima of the hydrographs is poorer. It has been hypothesized that ENSO signal slightly influences the predictability of winter and early spring floods in SW Poland. The predictions of flood wave maxima are the most accurate for floods preceded by normal states, less accurate for peak flows after La Niña episodes and highly inaccurate for peak flows preceded by El Niño events. Such a finding can be interpreted in terms of intermittency. Before peak flows preceded by El Niño there are temporarily persistent low flows followed by a consecutive melting leading to a considerable intermittency and hence to difficulties in forecasting. Before peak flows preceded by La Niña episodes there exist ENSO-related positive temperature and precipitation anomalies in SW Poland causing lower, but still considerable, intermittency and thus better, but not entirely correct, predictability of hydrologic time series.

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Section: Winter and Spring Peak Flow Forecasting Vs Ensomentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Empirical Hydrologic Predictions for Southwestern Poland and Their Relation to Enso Teleconnections

Niedzielski¹

2010

Artificial Satellites

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“…In this framework, catchments must exceed a moisture threshold to become responsive to inputs, with soil, bedrock topography, and catchment morphometry all being identified as important first-order controls on this relationship [Tromp-van Meerveld and McDonnell, 2006;Spence, 2007;Detty and McGuire, 2010]. The temporal pattern of this coupling is controlled by both intrinsic and extrinsic factors, and a system ''memory'' exists whereby P-Q coupling has discernible temporal patterns and cycles that persist intra and interannually, and over decadal scales in response to global linkages [Keener et al, 2010;Niedzielski, 2011;Ouachani et al, 2013]. Catchment soils, geology, topology, and topography all influence catchment storage and short-term responses to water balance dynamics [Buttle, 2006], whereas climate imparts a periodicity in hydrological patterns when observed at seasonal, annual, and decadal scales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Use of color maps and wavelet coherence to discern seasonal and interannual climate influences on streamflow variability in northern catchments

et al. 2013

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[1] The higher midlatitudes of the northern hemisphere are particularly sensitive to change due to the important role the 0 C isotherm plays in the phase of precipitation and intermediate storage as snow. An international intercatchment comparison program called North-Watch seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical variability and response. Here eight North-Watch catchments located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook, and HJ Andrews), and Canada (Dorset and Wolf Creek) with 10 continuous years of daily precipitation and runoff data were selected to assess daily to seasonal coupling of precipitation (P) and runoff (Q) using wavelet coherency, and to explore the patterns and scales of variability in streamflow using color maps. Wavelet coherency revealed that P and Q were decoupled in catchments with cold winters, yet were strongly coupled during and immediately following the spring snowmelt freshet. In all catchments, coupling at shorter time scales occurred during wet periods when the catchment was responsive and storage deficits were small. At longer time scales, coupling reflected coherence between seasonal cycles, being enhanced at sites with enhanced seasonality in P. Color maps were applied as an alternative method to identify patterns and scales of flow variability. Seasonal versus transient flow variability was identified along with the persistence of that variability on influencing the flow regime. While exploratory in nature, this intercomparison exercise highlights the importance of climate and the 0 C isotherm on the functioning of northern catchments.

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Temporal and spatial variability of extreme river flow quantiles in the Upper Vistula River basin, Poland

Rutkowska

Willems

Onyutha

et al. 2017

Hydrological Processes

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Temporal and spatial variability in extreme quantile anomalies of seasonal and annual maximum river flows was studied for 41 gauging stations at rivers in the Upper Vistula River basin, Poland. Using the quantile perturbation method, the temporal variability in anomalies was analysed. Interdecadal oscillating components were extracted from the series of anomalies using the Hilbert‐Huang transform method. Period length, part of variance of each component, and part of unexplained variance were assessed. Results show an oscillating pattern in the temporal occurrence of extreme flow quantiles with clusters of high values in the 1960–1970s and since the late 1990s and of low values in the 1980s and at the beginning of the 1990s. The anomalies show a high variability on the right bank of the Upper Vistula River basin during the summer season with the highest values in catchments located in the western and south‐western parts of the basin. River flow extreme quantiles were found to be associated with large‐scale climatic variables from the regions of the North Atlantic Ocean, Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, Asia, and, to a lesser extent, the Pacific Ocean. Similarities between temporal variability of river flows and climatic factors were revealed. Results of the study are important for flood frequency analysis because a long observation period is necessary to capture clusters of high and low river flows.

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Is There Any Teleconnection Between Surface Hydrology in Poland and El Niño/Southern Oscillation?

Cited by 15 publications

References 44 publications

Empirical Hydrologic Predictions for Southwestern Poland and Their Relation to Enso Teleconnections

Empirical Hydrologic Predictions for Southwestern Poland and Their Relation to Enso Teleconnections

Use of color maps and wavelet coherence to discern seasonal and interannual climate influences on streamflow variability in northern catchments

Temporal and spatial variability of extreme river flow quantiles in the Upper Vistula River basin, Poland

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