Island Hopping in a Biodiversity Hotspot Archipelago: Reconstructed Invasion History and Updated Status and Distribution of Alien Frogs in the Philippines1

Pili, Arman N.; Sy, Emerson; Diesmos, Mae L.; Diesmos, Arvin C.

doi:10.2984/73.3.2

Cited by 16 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…We found niche unfilling for all species, revealing environmental non-equilibrium in the species' Philippine niches. This supports the findings of Pili et al 52 that all species' invasions in the Philippines are incomplete, and that the species continue to spread. Moreover, for all species, PC biplots revealed analogous environmental space that is www.nature.com/scientificreports www.nature.com/scientificreports/ unoccupied in both native and Philippine-invaded ranges.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Patterns in alien amphibian 32 , reptile 32 , and bird 31 invasions showed that residency time (i.e., the length of time since a species was first introduced) is inversely correlated with the magnitude of niche unfilling. Our findings regarding R. marina, which was introduced in the Philippines in 1934 52 , are somewhat conforming with this pattern. Meanwhile, the other species showed an inverse pattern; for example, H. rugulosus and K. pulchra, respectively introduced only in the 1990s and 2000s 52 , showed low levels of niche unfilling, whereas H. erythraea showed substantial niche unfilling, despite being first introduced in the Philippines for more than a century ago in the 1880s 52 .…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

“…However, inter-island trade of these commodities is low, likely limiting the species dispersal throughout the archipelago. This low level of propagule pressure coincides with its spatio-temporal spread in the Philippines, in which it was first introduced and restricted among import-dependent small islands in the Central Philippines for more than a century, and only dispersed to the country's major islands of Luzon and Mindanao in the 1990s, where it underwent an increased rate of spread 52 . Meanwhile, high propagule pressure was likely an important contributor to the low levels of niche unfilling in R. marina, H. rugulosus, and K. pulchra.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

“…Similarly, the high niche unfilling in H. erythraea observed here may be due to its dependence on pathways characterized by low inter-island propagule pressure, especially during the early periods of its invasion. Hylarana erythraea is known to historically disperse inter-island primarily as a contaminant of commodities (agriculture, animals) (sensu Scalera et al 65 ) 52 . The trade of these commodities (reflecting propagule pressure) is high intra-islands, especially on larger Philippine islands such as Luzon and Mindanao, where rapid and short-distance transport is possible and is critical for such perishable commodities.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ensemble models identify the signals (i.e., high agreement among models) and filter the noises (i.e., high disagreement) from different ENMs, yielding a lower mean error than any of the constituent ENMs and their resulting predictions 56 . We related observed niche changes to aspects of the species' invasion history in the Philippines 52 and to predictions of potential distributions. We conclude with a discussion on the implications of our findings for invasion risk assessments.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Niche shifts and environmental non-equilibrium undermine the usefulness of ecological niche models for invasion risk assessments

Pili

Tingley

Sy³

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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niche shifts and environmental non-equilibrium in invading alien species undermine niche-based predictions of alien species' potential distributions and, consequently, their usefulness for invasion risk assessments. Here, we compared the realized climatic niches of four alien amphibian species (Hylarana erythraea, Rhinella marina, Hoplobatrachus rugulosus, and Kaloula pulchra) in their native and Philippine-invaded ranges to investigate niche changes that have unfolded during their invasion and, with this, assessed the extent of niche conservatism and environmental equilibrium. We investigated how niche changes affected reciprocal transferability of ecological niche models (ENMs) calibrated using data from the species' native and Philippine-invaded ranges, and both ranges combined. We found varying levels of niche change across the species' realized climatic niches in the Philippines: climatic niche shift for H. rugulosus; niche conservatism for R. marina and K. pulchra; environmental nonequilibrium in the philippine-invaded range for all species; and environmental non-equilibrium in the native range or adaptive changes post-introduction for all species except H. erythraea. niche changes undermined the reciprocal transferability of ENMs calibrated using native and Philippine-invaded range data. Our paper highlights the difficulty of predicting potential distributions given niche shifts and environmental non-equilibrium; we suggest calibrating ENMs with data from species' combined native and invaded ranges, and to regularly reassess niche changes and recalibrate ENMs as species' invasions progress. The large-scale redistribution of alien species-i.e., species whose presence in a region is attributed to human activities that enabled them to overcome fundamental biogeographical barriers (sensu Richardson et al. 1)-is a defining feature of the Anthropocene 2,3. Alien species' invasions can alter the ecology of recipient environments 4,5 and have socioeconomic impacts on recipient jurisdictions 6. Recognizing these impacts, world nations have committed to develop and implement science-based biosecurity policies and strategies in response to ongoing and future alien species invasions 7,8 , for biodiversity conservation 9 and sustainability 10. Invasion risk assessments assess the ecological and socioeconomic impacts of alien species' invasions, producing the needed information to prioritize alien species and areas for biosecurity intervention 7,11. Invasion risk assessment activities include predicting the potential distribution (i.e., climatically suitable areas) of invading and/or potentially invasive alien species 11. These predictions can be made through ecological niche modelling (ENM; aka species distribution modelling) 12-15-a correlative statistical tool that quantifies species-environment

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 71%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Niche shifts and environmental non-equilibrium undermine the usefulness of ecological niche models for invasion risk assessments

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Non-native populations and global invasion potential of the Indian bullfrog Hoplobatrachus tigerinus: a synthesis for risk-analysis

et al. 2020

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Invasive amphibians have considerable ecological and socio-economic impact. However, strong taxonomic biases in the existing literature necessitate synthesizing knowledge on emerging invaders. The Indian bullfrog, Hoplobatrachus tigerinus, a large dicroglossid frog (snout to vent length: up to 160 mm), is native to the Indian sub-continent. Despite the high likelihood of invasion success for H. tigerinus, based on the species' natural history traits and human use, the status of its non-native populations and global invasion potential has not yet been assessed. In this paper, we provide a profile of H.tigerinus as an invasive species to aid in risk analyses and management of existing populations. We review the available knowledge on non-native populations of H. tigerinus and model its potential distribution in the non-native range and globally; finally, we evaluate its ecological and socio-economic impact using standard impact classification schemes. We confirm successful invasions on the Andaman archipelago and Madagascar. The ensemble species distribution model, with 'good' predictive ability and transferability, predicts tropical regions of the world to be climatically suitable for the species. Considering potential for propagule pressure, we predict the climatically suitable Mascarene Islands, Malaysia and Indonesia, and East Africa to likely be recipients of bridgehead invasions. We assign the species two impact scores: both socio-economic and environmental scores were 'moderate' with 'medium' confidence levels in our assessment. Finally, this synthesis outlines the invasion process of the genus Hoplobatrachus, which is an emerging group of amphibian invaders.Keywords Amphibian Á Madagascar Á Andaman Nicobar Á Island invasive Á Risk-assessment Á Impact scoring Á Environmental impact classification for Alien Taxa Á Socio-economic impact classification of Alien Taxa Á Pet trade Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (

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Lag times and invasion dynamics of established and emerging weeds: insights from herbarium records of Queensland, Australia

et al. 2021

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Herbarium records provide comprehensive information on plant distribution, offering opportunities to construct invasion curves of introduced species, estimate their rates and patterns of expansions in novel ranges, as well as identifying lag times and hence “sleeper weeds”, if any. Lag times especially have rarely been determined for many introduced species, including weeds in the State of Queensland, Australia as the trait is thought to be unpredictable and cannot be screened for. Using herbarium records (1850–2010), we generated various invasiveness indices, and developed simple invasion and standardised proportion curves of changes in distribution with time for ~ 100 established and emerging weed species of Queensland. Four major periods (decades) of increased weed spread (spikes) were identified: 1850s, 1900–1920, 1950–1960 and 2000–2010, especially for grasses and trees/shrubs. Many weeds with spikes in spread periods did so only 1–2 decadal times, except for a few species with higher spike frequencies > 6; the majority of these spikes occurred recently (1950–1990). A significant proportion (~ 60%) of Queensland’s weeds exhibit non-linear increase in spread with time, and hence have lag phases (mean: 45.9 years; range: 12–126 years); of these lag-phase species, 39% are “sleeper” weeds with > 50 years of lag time (mainly trees/shrubs and grasses). Twelve traits of invasiveness, including lag time and species-specific/historical factors were screened, of which frequency of invasion waves, spread rates and residence time were the main drivers of weeds’ distribution. The low predictive power of lag time on weed distribution suggests that retrospective analyses offer little hope for a robust generalisation to identify weeds of tomorrow.

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Island Hopping in a Biodiversity Hotspot Archipelago: Reconstructed Invasion History and Updated Status and Distribution of Alien Frogs in the Philippines1

Cited by 16 publications

References 63 publications

Niche shifts and environmental non-equilibrium undermine the usefulness of ecological niche models for invasion risk assessments

Niche shifts and environmental non-equilibrium undermine the usefulness of ecological niche models for invasion risk assessments

Non-native populations and global invasion potential of the Indian bullfrog Hoplobatrachus tigerinus: a synthesis for risk-analysis

Lag times and invasion dynamics of established and emerging weeds: insights from herbarium records of Queensland, Australia

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