Issues in Qualitative and Quantitative Risk Analysis for Developmental Toxicology¹

Abstract

The qualitative and quantitative evaluation of risk in developmental toxicology has been discussed in several recent publications. A number of issues still are to be resolved in this area. The qualitative evaluation and interpretation of end points in developmental toxicology depends on an understanding of the biological events leading to the end points observed, the relationships among end points, and their relationship to dose and to maternal toxicity. The interpretation of these end points is also affected by the statistical power of the experiments used for detecting the various end points observed. The quantitative risk assessment attempts to estimate human risk for developmental toxicity as a function of dose. The current approach is to apply safety (uncertainty) factors to the no observed effect level (NOEL). An alternative presented and discussed here is to model the experimental data and apply a safety factor to an estimated risk level to achieve an "acceptable" level of risk. In cases where the dose-response curves upward, this approach provides a conservative estimate of risk. This procedure does not preclude the existence of a threshold dose. More research is needed to develop appropriate dose-response models that can provide better estimates for low-dose extrapolation of developmental effects.

Risk assessment for occupational exposure to chemicals. A review of current methodology (IUPAC Technical Report)

“…An alternative to the NOAEL/LOAEL approach is the benchmark dose method [4,5], originally applied to developmental toxicity. In this procedure, the dose-response curve is fitted to the experimental data in the range of experimental observation by appropriate curve-fitting modeling.…”

Environmental damage estimations in industrial process chains

“…the playing of the children outside on the meadow). Crump (1984) proposed the benchmark dose method as an alternative to the NOEL approach; the method has been extended by Kimmel & Gaylor (1988). This alternative is supported in the US-EPA's Benchmark Dose Technical Guidance (US-EPA 1996a).…”

Overview of a Workshop on Quantitative Models for Developmental Toxicity Risk Assessment

“…Also, scientists and health care specialists must consider what would be an acceptable level of risk, based on background levels and what is known about the biological processes underlying these phenomena. Currently used procedures of 100-to 1000-fold safety factors reduce the estimated risk levels to a range of no more than 1 in 1000 to 1 in 10,000 cases (27). Is this level of risk acceptable?…”