It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways

Abstract

It is still possible to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement to maintain a global temperature ‘well below +2.0 °C’ above pre-industrial levels. We present two global non-overshoot pathways (+2.0 °C and +1.5 °C) with regional decarbonization targets for the four primary energy sectors—power, heating, transportation, and industry—in 5-year steps to 2050. We use normative scenarios to illustrate the effects of efficiency measures and renewable energy use, describe the roles of increased electrification of the final energy demand and synthetic fuels, and quantify the resulting electricity load increases for 72 sub-regions. Non-energy scenarios include a phase-out of net emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses, reductions in non-carbon greenhouse gases, and land restoration to scale up atmospheric CO2 removal, estimated at −377 Gt CO2 to 2100. An estimate of the COVID-19 effects on the global energy demand is included and a sensitivity analysis describes the impacts if implementation is delayed by 5, 7, or 10 years, which would significantly reduce the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 °C goal. The analysis applies a model network consisting of energy system, power system, transport, land-use, and climate models.

True Cost of Solar Hydrogen

“…Combined heat and power (CHP) can integrate FC systems to provide heat for buildings as well as electricity. [ 5,66 ] The preferred choice to heat and cool in new and refurbished buildings relies on the use of electrically driven heat pumps. [ 67 ] The use of hydrogen instead of running heat pumps requires the creation of a hydrogen infrastructure similar to the one currently used for natural gas or to transport in any other form to be delivered at the building infrastructure limiting the overall losses.…”

Dynamic modelling shows substantial contribution of ecosystem restoration to climate change mitigation

“…Together, the five pathways result in a cumulative terrestrial carbon increase of 93 Gt C by 2100 (115 Gt C by 2150). This is a lower estimate than the bookkeeping method originally used to study these pathways (152 Gt C by 2150) [30,31], which may be attributed to the spatially explicit and climate-sensitive nature of the DGVM approach used here. Although only natural regeneration is used to represent biome restoration in the three forestry pathways (plantation of trees occurs on smaller areas in the Agroforestry and Silvopasture pathways), carbon uptake is immediate and rapid, declining in pace after the first few decades as forests reach maturity.…”

“…The recently developed One Earth Climate Model (OECM) includes a 1.5 • C compliant pathway through a global transition to 100% renewable energy and reliance on ecosystem-based land management practices [23,30]. These were developed to highlight the importance of protection and restoration of natural ecosystems in achieving the Paris climate goals, alongside sustainable forest management and agriculture.…”

“…These were developed to highlight the importance of protection and restoration of natural ecosystems in achieving the Paris climate goals, alongside sustainable forest management and agriculture. A bookkeeping approach, coupled with Monte Carlo analysis, found that these practices resulted in additional cumulative removals with a median of 152 Gt C between 2020 and 2150, a significant contribution to a 1.5 • C mitigation pathway [30,31]. However, the necessary scale of land-based mitigation poses significant challenges, and further analysis is required to understand the feasibility and carboncycle responses to widespread restoration of the biosphere.…”

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic to the Sustainability of the Energy Sector

“…Maniatis et al [30] considered changes to the global economy and energy sector in the context of COVID-19 and discussed the opportunities to implement the 2050 targets of the Paris Agreement. In order to investigate the possibility of achieving the Paris Climate Agreement targets, Teske et al [31] used normative scenarios. According to the projections, the delay in the implementation of climate goals would significantly decrease the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 degrees C goal.…”