The Energy [R]evolution 2010 scenario is an update of the Energy [R]evolution scenarios published in 2007 and 2008. It takes up recent trends in global energy demand and production and analyses to which extent this affects chances for achieving climate protection targets. The main target is to reduce global CO 2 emissions to 3.7 Gt/a in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to below 2°C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A ten-region energy system model is used for simulating global energy supply strategies. A review of sector and region specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The Energy [R]evolution scenario shows that renewable energy can provide more than 80% of the world's energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO 2 emissions by 2025 and reduce afterwards, whilst at the same time increasing energy consumption due to economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 90% by 2050. However, without a comprehensive energy efficiency implementation strategy across all sectors, the renewable energy development alone will not be enough to make these drastic emissions cuts.

As many other small islands and archipelagos, the Canary Islands depend to a high degree on energy imports. Despite its small surface, the archipelago has a high potential for renewable energy (RE) technologies. In this paper, we present a scenario pathway to a 100% RE supply in the Canary Islands by 2050. It relies on a back-casting approach linking the bottom-up accounting framework Mesap-PlaNet and the high resolution power system model REMix. Our analysis shows that locally available technology potentials are sufficient for a fully renewable supply of the islands' power, heat, and land transport energy demands. To follow the pathway for achieving a carbon neutral supply, expansion of RE technology deployment needs to be accelerated in the short-term and efforts towards greater energy efficiency must be increased. According to our results, an extended linkage between energy sectors through electric vehicles as well as electric heating, and the usage of synthetic hydrogen can contribute notably to the integration of intermittent RE power generation. Furthermore, our results highlight the importance of power transmission in RE supply systems. Supply costs are found 15% lower in a scenario considering sea cable connections between all islands.

Abstract:With its abundance of renewable energy potentials, not only for hydropower and bioenergy, but also for wind and solar, Brazil provides good prospects for a carbon neutral energy system. The role of an enhanced coupling of the power, heat and transport sectors in such systems is not yet fully understood. This paper analyses the least-cost composition and operation of a fully renewable power supply system as part of a carbon neutral energy supply in Brazil. It relies on the application of the high-resolution energy system model REMix. Our analysis reveals that the expansion of wind and solar power is more cost-efficient than the construction of additional hydroelectric plants. This is favoured because the existing hydroelectric plants offer large capacity of dispatchable power to compensate for fluctuations, and thus no additional storage is necessary. Furthermore, the REMix analysis indicates that varying shares of solar and wind power technologies as well as the spatial distribution of power generation have only a small influence on supply costs. This implies that the transformation strategy in Brazil can be primarily based on other criteria such as regional development, public acceptance, environmental impact or industrial policy without major impacts on system costs.

SUMMARYWe present the first comprehensive estimate of the final energy demand for heat in all EU28 member states for the reference year 2012, differentiated by temperature levels, comparing two different approaches. Two different calculation approaches based on different data sets yielded estimates of the total final energy demand for heat in the EU28 of 8150 PJ and 8518 PJ in 2012, respectively. Approach 1 distinguishes between three different process heat (PH) temperature levels and results in final energy demand for heat <100°C: 2077 PJ, 100-400°C: 2214 PJ and >400°C: 3859 PJ. The second approach distinguishes between low temperature space heat and hot water (<100°C: 1161 PJ) and four different PH temperature levels with a resulting energy demand of <100°C: 1027 PJ, 100-500°C: 1785 PJ, 500-1000°C: 1679 PJ and >1000°C: 2865 PJ. The high share of high-temperature heat illustrates the limits to the potential decarbonisation of industrial thermal processes with renewable energy sources such as (non-concentrating) solar thermal, geothermal or environmental heat. Therefore specific information on required temperature levels is of the essence. This, in turn, points out the relevance of renewable electricity and synthetic fuels based on renewable power for a significant reduction of CO 2 emissions from the industry sector in Europe. Considering current data quality, it is recommended to develop a consistent, comprehensive methodology to significantly improve the data basis on industrial heat demand.

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