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REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY)
PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)Science Applications International Corporation 10260 Campus Drive San Diego, CA 92121
PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER
SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES)Air Force Research Laboratory 29 Randolph Rd. Hanscom AFB, MA 01731-3010
SPONSOR/MONITOR'S ACRONYM(S)AFRL/RVBYE
SPONSOR/MONITOR'S REPORT NUMBER(S)
AFRL-RV-HA-TR-2008-1074
DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENTApproved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited.
SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
ABSTRACTThe objective of this project was to develop methodologies that improve location uncertainties in the presence of correlated, systematic model errors and non-Gaussian measurement errors. We have developed a methodology based on copula theory to obtain robust estimates of variogram models for travel-time error. Using this methodology, we produced generic, transportable variogram models for regional Pn and teleseismic P phases. These models are employed to estimate the network covariance matrix that describes the spatial correlation structure of travel-time predictions errors. We have developed and validated models of measurement errors that map phase picking delay and variance as a function of SNR, as well as a function of epicentral distance and body wave magnitude considered as a surrogate for SNR. The phase pick delays are implemented as travel-time corrections, while the measurement error variances add to the diagonal of the network covariance matrix to obtain the full, non-diagonal data covariance matrix. Our representation of model and measurement errors assumes that the bulk of 3D velocity heterogeneities in the Earth are accounted for by calibrated travel-time predictions. We have developed a linearized iterative location algorithm that makes use of the full data covariance matrix, hence accounts for the correlated model error structure. By relocating a large number of GT events (GT0-2 nuclear explosions, and GT5 earthquakes produced by Reciprocal Cluster Analysis we show that ignoring the correlated error structure leads to rapidly deteriorating error ellipse coverage and locat...