Jobs, Crime, and Votes a Short-Run Evaluation of the Refugee Crisis in Germany

Abstract

Die Dis cus si on Pape rs die nen einer mög lichst schnel len Ver brei tung von neue ren For schungs arbei ten des ZEW. Die Bei trä ge lie gen in allei ni ger Ver ant wor tung der Auto ren und stel len nicht not wen di ger wei se die Mei nung des ZEW dar.Dis cus si on Papers are inten ded to make results of ZEW research prompt ly avai la ble to other eco no mists in order to encou ra ge dis cus si on and sug gesti ons for revi si ons. The aut hors are sole ly respon si ble for the con tents which do not neces sa ri ly repre sent the opi ni on of the ZEW. Jobs, Crime, and Votes -A Short-run Evaluation of the Refugee Crisis in GermanyMarkus Gehrsitz * Martin Ungerer † December 2, 2016 AbstractMillions of refugees made their way to Europe between 2014 and 2015, with over one million arriving in Germany alone. Yet, little is known about the impact of this inflow on labor markets, crime, and voting behavior. This article uses administrative data on refugee allocation and provides an evaluation of the short-run consequences of the refugee inflow. Our identification strategy exploits that a scramble for accommodation determined the assignment of refugees to German counties resulting in exogeneous variations in the number of refugees per county even within states. Our estimates suggest that migrants have not displaced native workers but have themselves struggled to find gainful employment. We find very small increases in crime in particular with respect to drug offenses and fare-dodging. Our analysis further suggests that counties which experience a larger influx see neither more nor less support for the main anti-immigrant party than counties which experience small migrant inflows.

Does Halting Refugee Resettlement Reduce Crime? Evidence from the US Refugee Ban

“…In other words, crime rates would have been similar had arrivals continued at pre-Executive Order levels. In light of several recent studies from Europe suggesting that refugee arrivals cause a modest rise in crime rates (Gehrsitz and Ungerer, 2017;Dehos, 2017;Lange and Sommerfeld, 2018), our null findings contribute to our understanding of a highly contentious dimension of immigration policy. The US presents an important case as, prior to 2017, it resettled more refugees each year than the rest of the world combined.…”

“…These important differences between refugees and the broader population of immigrants necessitate special consideration of the impact of resettlement on crime. Recent studies focusing on refugees in Germany suggest a small increase in crime rates due to the inflow of refugee migrants (Gehrsitz and Ungerer, 2017;Dehos, 2017;Lange and Sommerfeld, 2018). Although the evidence is still too limited and provisional for clear conclusions, it highlights the importance of studying the question elsewhere.…”

Refugees Welcome? Understanding the Regional Heterogeneity of Anti-Foreigner Hate Crimes in Germany

“…Our source of asylum seeker data is Gehrsitz and Ungerer (2016), who collected data from the States Ministries of Interior on the assignment of asylum seekers to counties. Their data provide information on the number of asylum seekers assigned to subordinate counties by the States Ministries of Interior in 2014 and 2015.…”

“…In addition, we use information on the presence of a large-scale asylum seeker reception center (EAE), also collected by Gehrsitz and Ungerer (2016). These centers have high visibility and might be more likely to be chosen as hate crime targets.…”

Refugees and Elections: The Effects of Syrians on Voting Behavior in Turkey

“…Looking into municipal and parliamentary elections in Germany, Gehrsitz and Ungerer () have studied how the sudden and large flow of migrants to Germany in 2014–15 affected unemployment, crime, and voting behaviour. Evaluating election turnout and support for the governing party, they find that – unlike in Denmark – rising immigrant flows had no significant effect on support for the AfD (an explicitly anti‐immigration outfit).…”