Joint probability analysis of marine environmental elements

Liu, Guilin; Yu, Yang; Kou, Yi; Du, Xiaozhen; Longzhi, Han; Wu, Fang; Liu, Shaoxun

doi:10.1016/j.oceaneng.2020.107879

Cited by 9 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Since the Copula functional model is not restricted by the form of marginal distribution, it is able to organically combine different degrees of correlation and correlation patterns among random variables while building a joint structure [37,38]. Therefore, this paper adopts the Copula function for the probability of typhoon occurrence in structure function construction.…”

Section: Definition 1 If N Typhoons Occur In the Study Area Within A ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Level Assessment of Typhoon Hazard Based on Loss Utility

Liu,

Yang,

Nong

et al. 2023

JMSE

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In the context of climate change with frequent natural disasters, disaster risk assessment can provide great help for related risk decision-making. Based on the theory of loss expectation, this paper presents a quantitative method to assess typhoon disaster risk. Among them, the probability of typhoon occurrence is calculated by fitting the optimal structure function of the sample to the joint distribution of wave height, water increment and wind speed. Then, the loss expectation is expressed as the product of typhoon occurrence probability and loss utility, which is used to quantify the loss result of a typhoon disaster. Using the loss utility theory, the risk grade chart is drawn with the direct economic loss rate and the proportion of the affected population as indicators. The results show that the absolute loss value considering the loss utility is slightly higher than the loss value of the quantitative algorithm by 2% to 25%, indicating that the new model reflects the social group’s aversion to typhoon disaster risk. As can be seen from the risk level zoning map, the highest combined risk level typhoons are Prapiroon 0606 and Chanthu 1003, with a risk level of Category 5. The typhoon comprehensive risk level before 2011 was ≥3, and the typhoon comprehensive risk level from 2012 to 2015 was ≤3. The evaluation model has certain feasibility and practicability, and the results can provide a basis and reference for typhoon risk assessment and decision-making.

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Section: Definition 1 If N Typhoons Occur In the Study Area Within A ...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Level Assessment of Typhoon Hazard Based on Loss Utility

Liu,

Yang,

Nong

et al. 2023

JMSE

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Since the Copula functional model is not restricted by the form of marginal distribution, it is able to organically combine different degrees of correlation and correlation patterns among random variables while building a joint structure (Li et al 2013;Liu et al 2020c). Therefore, this paper adopts the Copula function for the probability of typhoon occurrence in structure function construction.…”

Section: Fig1 Schematic Diagram Of the Loss Aversion Utility Functionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk Level Assessment of Typhoon Hazard based on Aversion Utility

Liu

Nong

Kou

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

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In the context of climate change where natural disasters are frequent, assessing disaster risk can provide great help for relevant risk decisions. Based on the loss expectation theory, this paper proposes a method for quantitatively assessing typhoon disaster risk. In particular, the probability of typhoon occurrence is calculated by fitting the best structure function of the samples to the joint distribution of wave height, water increase, and wind speed. The loss expectation is then expressed as the product of the typhoon occurrence probability and the aversion utility loss, which is used to quantify the loss result of a typhoon disaster. In addition, a risk level map is created using the theory of aversion utility, with the direct economic loss rate and the proportion of disaster-affected population as indicators. The calculation results show that the absolute loss value considering the aversion utility is slightly higher than the product of the probability and the loss value, indicating that the new model reflects the social group's aversion to typhoon disaster risk. The diagram of risk level zoning showed that, excluding typhoon No.1306 Rumbia, the risk level assessments of the remaining typhoons, in accordance with affected population and direct economic loss, were basically consistent. This evaluation model, the outcomes of which can serve as a foundation and reference for certain risk assessment and decision-making, has some feasibility and practicability.

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Study on evaluation standard of uncertainty of design wave height calculation model

Chen

Kou

et al. 2021

J. Ocean. Limnol.

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Joint probability analysis of marine environmental elements

Cited by 9 publications

References 41 publications

Risk Level Assessment of Typhoon Hazard Based on Loss Utility

Risk Level Assessment of Typhoon Hazard Based on Loss Utility

Risk Level Assessment of Typhoon Hazard based on Aversion Utility

Study on evaluation standard of uncertainty of design wave height calculation model

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