Just the Facts: Demographic and Cross-Country Dimensions of the Employment Slump

The Minimum Wage and the Great Recession: Evidence from the Current Population Survey

“…As shown below, this paper's findings reinforce Clemens and Wither's (2014b) conclusion that this period's minimum wage increases had significant, negative effects on lowskilled workers' employment.…”

“…In July 2007, the federal minimum rose from $5.15 to $5.85, in July 2008 it rose to $6.55, and in July 2009 it rose to $7.25. Figure 1 shows my division of states into those that were fully and partially bound by changes in the federal minimum wage, which follows the division in Clemens and Wither (2014b). 7 The designation is based on whether a state's January 2008 minimum was below $6.55, rendering it at least partially bound by the July 2008 increase and fully bound by the July 2009 increase.…”

“…on the employment of low-education, low-experience workers during this time period. Clemens and Wither (2014b) analyze recent minimum wage increases' effects using the 2008 panel of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). The analysis makes use of the fact that this period's federal minimum wage increases were differentially binding across states, generating natural comparison groups.…”

“…Further, it accounts for a 0.49 percentage point decline in the employment to population ratio across all individuals ages 16 to 64. This aggregate impact, which is derived exclusively from impacts on individuals ages 16 to 30 with less than a high school education, is modestly smaller than the full-population employment estimate from Clemens and Wither (2014b). 5 The paper proceeds as follows.…”

“…Section 5 briefly recapitulates the evidence. For interested readers, Appendix A contrasts the analyses in this paper and in Clemens and Wither (2014b) with other analyses of this period's minimum wage increases.…”