Justices Denied: A County-Level Analysis of the 2010 Iowa Supreme Court Retention Election

Voter Response to Salient Judicial Decisions in Retention Elections

“…It was a high-visibility decision about which many citizens were likely aware due to the issue involved (same-sex marriage) and the series of events that occurred between the decision and the 2010 election. Varnum was followed by a battle between the parties in both state legislative bodies over amending the state constitution's definition of marriage (Buller 2011;Clopton and Peters 2013). Bob Vander Plaats, in a bid to win the 2010 Republican gubernatorial nomination, made overturning Varnum "the centerpiece of his campaign," and though he did not win the nomination, he launched a campaign against the justices, founding the group Iowa for Freedom (Clopton and Peters 2013, 322).…”

“…Presidential candidates shared their opinions on same-sex marriage nationally and in Iowa, increasing the visibility of the issue (Clopton and Peters 2013), and, for the first time ever, Iowans saw television ads about the supreme court retention race. American Family Action, Inc. and the National Organization for Marriage each spent over one-hundred thousand dollars for 319 ad spots targeting the Varnum decision and in support of conservative family values (Skaggs et al 2010).…”

“…American Family Action, Inc. and the National Organization for Marriage each spent over one-hundred thousand dollars for 319 ad spots targeting the Varnum decision and in support of conservative family values (Skaggs et al 2010). In total, groups and individuals opposing same-sex marriage and the justices' retention spent close to one million dollars, much more than those in favor of the decision (Aspin 2010;Clopton and Peters 2013). 6 Iowa's published 2010 election results show the unusually high levels of participation and negative votes in the judicial retention race.…”

“…Iowa's 2010 election presented an ideal opportunity for voter response in a judicial retention race. Same-sex marriage was an especially divisive issue, with public opinion estimates of support for same-sex marriage in Iowa prior to Varnum ranging from 25 to 42 percent (Lax and Phillips 2009;Kreitzer, Hamilton, and Tolbert 2014;Kastellec 2018), and the decision led to a battle over the constitution in the state legislature (Clopton and Peters 2013). Interest groups also devoted extensive resources to encouraging Iowans to vote in the race and to vote against the justices running for retention; they created the state's first commercials about a supreme court retention race (Skaggs et al 2010;Clopton and Peters 2013).…”

“…Scholars have linked previous state supreme court justice retention losses to voters' reactions to justices' decisions, and in many cases scholars credit special interest groups' efforts for mobilizing voters (Latzer 1996;Clopton and Peters 2013). However, this research is often descriptive, unable to estimate the electoral effect of the judicial decision(s) in question with the chosen method of analysis, or concerned with understanding which voters shaped the electoral outcome rather than estimating the outcome itself.…”