Keeping Pace with Fast Climate Change: Can Arctic Life Count on Evolution?

Abstract

Adaptations to the cold and to short growing seasons characterize arctic life, but climate in the Arctic is warming at an unprecedented rate. Will plant and animal populations of the Arctic be able to cope with these drastic changes in environmental conditions? Here we explore the potential contribution of evolution by natural selection to the current response of populations to climate change. We focus on the spring phenology of populations because it is highly responsive to climate change and easy to document across a wide range of species. We show that evolution can be fast and can occur at the time scale of a few decades. We present an example of reproductive phenological change associated with climate change (North American red squirrels in the Yukon), where a detailed analysis of quantitative genetic parameters demonstrates contemporary evolution. We answer a series of frequently asked questions that should help biologists less familiar with evolutionary theory and quantitative genetic methods to think about the role of evolution in current responses of ecological systems to climate change. Our conclusion is that evolution by natural selection is a pertinent force to consider even at the time scale of contemporary climate changes. However, all species may not be equal in their capacity to benefit from contemporary evolution.

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

“…So far, the dates of arrival to the breeding colony and of egg laying have not changed in emperor penguins as they have in other Antarctic seabirds in Terre Adélie (32), suggesting a slow rate of adaptation. Emperor penguins may respond slowly to new selective pressure due to their long generation time (2,33). The geographical range of Antarctic penguins may shrink following climate warming because the continent limits their movement south.…”

Long-term monitoring at multiple trophic levels suggests heterogeneity in responses to climate change in the Canadian Arctic tundra

“…In arthropods, species at higher latitudes have broader thermal tolerance than those at lower latitudes and they are living in climates that are currently cooler than their physiological optima [60]. A similar phenomenon may occur in some of the vertebrates we are monitoring in the high Arctic as the climate changes may have not yet exceeded their phenotypic plasticity and thus their capacity to cope with these changes [18]. It is also possible that the benefits associated with a response to some environmental changes, for instance, in terms of advancement in phenology, may not yet outweigh the potential costs, and thus the lack of response could be beneficial under certain circumstances [61].…”

“…plants or detritivores). Second, animals show phenotypic plasticity that allows them to cope with short-term environmental changes, though within some limits [18]. Third, the majority of breeding species are long-distance migrants that only come to the Arctic during the summer.…”

Evolutionary rescue in vertebrates: evidence, applications and uncertainty

“…Adaptive tracking has been quantified in several long-term studies, including the Galapagos finches (Geospiza spp.) [43,44], great tits (Parus major) [45,46] and red squirrels (Tamisciurus hudsonius) [47,48]. These population have all tracked some form of environmental change, such as gradual and sustained climate change [46,47] or abrupt, if not sustained, stochastic weather events [49].…”