We study the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) in the context of critical transitions modelled by fast-slow stochastic dynamical systems. We establish a new link between the dynamical theory of critical transitions with the statistical aspects of the MMD. In particular, we show that a formal approximation of the MMD near fast subsystem bifurcation points can be computed to leading order. This leading order approximation shows that the MMD depends intricately on the fast-slow systems parameters, which can influence the detection of potential early-warning signs before critical transitions. However, the MMD turns out to be an excellent binary classifier to detect the change-point location induced by the critical transition. We cross-validate our results by numerical simulations for a van der Pol-type model.
KEYWORDSbifurcation, critical transition, kernel methods, maximum mean discrepancy, multiscale system, time series, tipping point• Change-point detection: In a time series generated by a fast-slow SODE, there could be many different types and sizes of drastic jumps. Hence, it would not only be useful to develop an automatic and generic classifiers, 10-12 when we actually observe a critical transition, but also to cross validate a classifier against explicit low-dimensional models.Math Meth Appl Sci. 2019;42:907-917. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/mma