Key criteria influencing the choice of Arctic shipping: a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model

Abstract

As Arctic sea ice shrinks due to global warming, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP) offer a substantial reduction in shipping distance between Asia and the European and North American continents, respectively, when compared to conventional routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. However, Arctic shipping routes have many problems associated with their use. The main objective of this paper is to identify the key criteria that influence the decisions of shipping operators with respect to using Arctic shipping routes. A multi-criteria decisionmaking methodology, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process, is applied to rank four potential categories of criteria ('economic', 'technical', 'political' and 'safety' factors) and their sub-criteria. The results of the analysis suggest that, on aggregate, 'economic' is the most important category of influential factors, followed by 'safety', 'technical' and 'political' factors. The paper concludes, however, that the most influential specific sub-criteria relate to risks that lie mainly within the 'safety' and 'political' domains and that, especially in combination, these overwhelm the importance which is attached to 'economic' factors such as reduced fuel use. Finally, the implications of these findings for the future development of Arctic shipping are addressed at a strategic level.

Feasibility of the Northern Sea Route: The role of distance, fuel prices, ice breaking fees and ship size for the product tanker market

“…The results of this study are based on up to date secondary data, and most importantly on primary data related to Arctic-specific cost factors which might change over time. The complexity of Arctic maritime operations and the relatively small ice class fleet globally (Solakivi et al, 2018;Tseng and Cullinane, 2018), increase the variability of estimates and underline the difficulty of obtaining reliable parameters (Lasserre, 2014). For example, the shipowner who provided the primary data for this paper, highlighted that the price for an iceclass vessel can be negotiable and sometimes not so higher than that of an ordinary vessel.…”

“…whether ice breaking fees are charged on the basis of the service provided at the respective fee for a certain tanker size (NSRA, 2014) or are based on the number of ice breakers used per se. Moreover, transit voyages on the NSR are still exploratory in nature not least because of the uncertainty related to climatic and ice conditions, transit times, minimal infrastructure, remoteness and safety (Farré et al, 2014;Faury and Cariou, 2016;Aksenov et al, 2017;Fedi et al, 2018;Tseng and Cullinane, 2018). Exceptions include ships serving specific projects or are under the ownership of industrial carriers, such as the Yamal LNG tankers or the fleet of Norilsk Nickel.…”

“…Whilst the literature on comparative studies of Arctic routes has increased considerably since 2011, so has the difficulty of identifying valid parameters regarding certain cost and operational factors (Lasserre, 2014(Lasserre, , 2015Meng et al, 2016;Theocharis et al, 2018). Minimal shipping activity on Arctic waters regarding full transits coupled with the complexity of Arctic maritime operations in harsh climate and sea ice, and the relatively small ice class fleet globally (Yumashev et al, 2017;Solakivi et al, 2017Solakivi et al, , 2018Tseng and Cullinane, 2018), increase the variability of estimates and underline the difficulty of obtaining a global view on Arctic shipping economics. Solakivi et al (2017Solakivi et al ( , 2018 recently attempted to address this gap by statistically analysing and determining increased costs of ice class containerships, and bulkers and tankers respectively.…”

Electric Bus Selection with Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Green Transportation

“…The basics of AHP methodology involve structuring complex decisions as a hierarchy of goals, criteria, and alternatives, conducting a pairwise comparison of all the elements in each level of the decision hierarchy with respect to each criterion in the previous level of the hierarchy, and vertically synthesizing judgments on different levels of the hierarchy [76] AHP has been applied as a decision-making tool in many contexts due to its simplicity [77]. For instance, it was used in the evaluation and selection of medical tourism sites [78], strategic maintenance technique selection [79], heart disease diagnoses [80], critical criteria influencing the choice of arctic shipping [81], identification of potential aquaculture sites in solar saltscapes [82], ecological vulnerability assessment [83], risk assessment [84], evaluation of high-speed railway (HSR) construction projects [85], selection of suitable sites for wind power in Pakistan [86], and selection of rail system projects [87].…”

Autonomous ships for container shipping in the Arctic routes

“…Every year, the NSR is ice-free for about three months [4]. The NSR and NWP offer a shorter shipping distance between Asia and the European continent, and between Asia and the North American continent, respectively, in comparison with the current routes through the Suez and Panama Canals [5]. The shorter shipping distance brought by the Arctic route potentially brings value to global supply chains by reducing lead times, particularly for container shipping [6].…”