Key determinants of global land-use projections

Stehfest, Elke; Zeist, Willem‐Jan van; Valin, Hugo; Havlík, Petr; Popp, Alexander; Kyle, Page; Tabeau, Andrzej; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan C.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Humpenöder, Florian; Lotze‐Campen, Hermann; Meijl, Hans van; Wiebe, Keith

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w

Cited by 166 publications

(125 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…In the present study, we aim to assess the consequences for BES in Europe under four new future socio-environmental scenarios as developed in the OpenNESS project. To that end, we used two complementary integrated assessment models (IAMs): the global IMAGE-GLOBIO model (Alkemade et al 2009;Schipper et al 2020;Stehfest et al 2014) and the European CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform (IAP) (Dunford et al 2015;Harrison et al 2016;Harrison et al 2015). This enabled us to quantify a broader set of BES indicators and to assess the consistency of the results, which in turn helps to identify factors underlying model uncertainty.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe with two integrated assessment models

et al. 2020

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Projections of future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) are of increasing importance to inform policy and decision-making on options for conservation and sustainable use of BES. Scenario-based modelling is a powerful tool to assess these future changes. This study assesses the consequences for BES in Europe under four socio-environmental scenarios designed from a BES perspective. We evaluated these scenarios using two integrated assessment models (IMAGE-GLOBIO and CLIMSAVE IAP, respectively). Our results showed that (i) climate and land use change will continue to pose significant threats to biodiversity and some ecosystem services, even in the most optimistic scenario; (ii) none of the four scenarios achieved overall preservation of BES in Europe; and (iii) targeted policies (e.g. on climate change, biodiversity conservation and sustainable land management) and behavioural change (e.g. reducing meat consumption, water-saving behaviour) reduced the magnitude of BES loss. These findings stress the necessity of more ambitious policies and actions if BES in Europe are to be safeguarded. We further found that the multi-modelling approach was critical to account for complementary BES dimensions and highlighted different sources of uncertainties (e.g. related to land use allocation, driving forces behind BES changes, trade assumptions), which facilitated nuanced and contextualised insights with respect to possible BES futures.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe with two integrated assessment models

et al. 2020

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“…There are a number of uncertainties and limitations to this work. Other studies have shown that global land-use models show a substantial range in projections of food availability, and results from the MAGNET model are characterised by median total and crop food availability, but relatively low livestock food availability (Stehfest et al 2019). The food demand of MAGNET is relatively inelastic in response to economic growth at high income levels as higher income does not lead to more food consumption.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 97%

How food secure are the green, rocky and middle roads: food security effects in different world development paths

Meijl

Tabeau

Stehfest

et al. 2020

Environ. Res. Commun.

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The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) address food and nutrition security with goal number two. Food and nutrition security is a complicated issue, and understanding its future requires insights into (i) food availability, (ii) food access, (iii) food utilisation, and (iv) food stability. Not all these dimensions are covered by the SDG2 and its indicators. A unique feature of this paper is that it focuses on the first three dimensions of food security in addition to the prevalence of undernourishment (SDG indicator 2.1.1). Here we explore future food security in the absence of dedicated policies, to derive the 'policy gap' for this goal. The internationally agreed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) are quantified using a computable general equilibrium model (MAGNET) coupled with an integrated assessment model (IMAGE) that enable a linkage between income and expenditures given segmented labour markets. Based on the three dimensions of food security our results showed a less optimistic outlook than based on previous studies. Food availability is projected to improve in all 5 SSP scenarios, except South Asia in SSP3 due to serious land constraints. As a result, the number of undernourished people decreases in most scenarios, becoming increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. However, undernourishment stays high in SSP4 (550 million people) and increases to over two billion people in SSP3. Food access generally improves due to higher agricultural and nonagricultural wages of unskilled workers. However, due to lock-in effects the wages of unskilled agricultural workers might decline, leading to reduced food access in SSP3, SSP4 and SSP2. The indicator of food utilisation shows food security problems for Sub-Saharan Africa in SSP3 and SSP4. Our results indicate that food security problems remain and that effective policies are needed to achieve food security for all. OPEN ACCESS RECEIVED

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“…?". This approach differs significantly from the bottom-up, data driven approach presented here, which stands in the scientific tradition of mechanistic land use modeling (for instance [29,107]). For other countries and jurisdictions to capitalize on this methodology, solid data on population, food, and feed consumption and agriculture and wood production are needed.…”

Section: Policy Implicationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…From the perspective of a stepwise approach towards the development of a national FREL, the study uses available datasets to establish an adjusted subnational FREL for Cameroon and critically analyses future steps for improving the FREL as the country aims to access performance-based finance. The working hypothesis underlying the adjustment term of the FREL is that there is a clear set of quantifiable variables related to the development of a society leading to forest conversion that can be projected into the future [29] while aiming at a high degree of transparency. The methodology for FREL development presented in this paper is easily replicable in other HFLD countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Determining a Carbon Reference Level for a High-Forest-Low-Deforestation Country

Pirker

Mosnier

Nana³

et al. 2019

Forests

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Research Highlights: A transparent approach to developing a forest reference emissions level (FREL) adjusted to future local developments in Southern Cameroon is demonstrated. Background and Objectives: Countries with low historical deforestation can adjust their forest reference (emission) level (FREL/FRL) upwards for REDD+ to account for likely future developments. Many countries, however, find it difficult to establish a credible adjusted reference level. This article demonstrates the establishment of a FREL for southern Cameroon adjusted to societal megatrends of strong population—and economic growth combined with rapid urbanization. It demonstrates what can be done with available information and data, but most importantly outlines pathways to further improve the quality of future FREL/FRL’s in light of possibly accessing performance-based payments. Materials and Methods: The virtual FREL encompasses three main elements: Remotely sensed activity data; emission factors derived from the national forest inventory; and the adjustment of the reference level using a land use model of the agriculture sector. Sensitivity analysis is performed on all three elements using Monte Carlo methods. Results: Deforestation during the virtual reference period 2000–2015 is dominated by non-industrial agriculture (comprising both smallholders and local elites) and increases over time. The land use model projections are consistent with this trend, resulting in emissions that are on average 47% higher during the virtual performance period 2020–2030 than during the reference period 2000–2015. Monte Carlo analysis points to the adjustment term as the main driver of uncertainty in the FREL calculation. Conclusions: The available data is suitable for constructing a FREL for periodic reporting to the UNFCCC. Enhanced coherence of input data notably for activity data and adjustment is needed to apply for a performance-based payment scheme. Expanding the accounting framework to include forest degradation and forest gain are further priorities requiring future research.

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Key determinants of global land-use projections

Cited by 166 publications

References 52 publications

Future projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe with two integrated assessment models

Future projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe with two integrated assessment models

How food secure are the green, rocky and middle roads: food security effects in different world development paths

Determining a Carbon Reference Level for a High-Forest-Low-Deforestation Country

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