Knowing the past to forecast the future: a case study on a relictual, endemic species of the SW Alps, Berardia subacaulis

Abstract

Future climate change may lead to a substantial loss of biodiversity, particularly affecting mountain regions, including the Alps. Range-size reduction in high mountain plant species is predicted to be more pronounced for endemic species. Investigating the broad temporal spectrum of range shifts is important for the conservation of biodiversity, since learning how species responded to climate change in the past provides useful insights on how they might react to warming trends in the present and future. Using species distribution models and an ensemble forecasting approach, we explored how the distribution of Berardia subacaulis, a monospecific genus endemic of the south-west Alps, may be affected by past and future projected climate change. During the last interglacial, the habitat suitability of Berardia was lower than present and a progressive increase was observed from the last glacial maximum until now. In the future, Berardia appears to lose more than 80 % of its range, becoming endangered by 2050. Our results suggest that Berardia probably survived past warmer periods in situ, expanding its distributional range during cooler periods. The severe future range contraction predicted for Berardia reflects similar results for other endemic species. As Berardia represents an interesting model species to evaluate the effects of climate warming on range size and shifts, demographic and precise range monitoring may be undertaken on this species.

Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict <em>Papaver occidentale</em> (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps

“…The severe future range contraction predicted for P. occidentale reflects similar results for other alpine endemic species, e.g. Berardia subacaulis [80] or Lilium pomponium [81]. It was often concluded, that global warming may result in a significant upward shift in species optimum elevation [82], giving the threatened species an additional survival option.…”

Climate Change and Alpine Screes: No Future for Glacial Relict Papaver occidentale (Papaveraceae) in Western Prealps

“…By the RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, P. occidentale will face a complete extinction by 2085 across its whole distribution area. The severe future range contraction predicted for P. occidentale reflects similar results for other alpine endemic species, e.g., Berardia subacaulis [85] or Lilium pomponium [86]. It was often concluded, that global warming may result in a significant upward shift in species optimum elevation [87], giving the threatened species an additional survival option.…”

The abundance and diversity of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi are linked to the soil chemistry of screes and to slope in the Alpic paleo-endemic Berardia subacaulis

“…This plant plays an important role in the conservation of alpine biodiversity, because it belongs to a monospecific genus, and represents an old Tertiary lineage [ 27 ], with no close extant relatives [ 28 ]. The plant is believed to have survived the climate changes of the past, and to have persisted in extreme habitats with low inter-specific competition and few pollinators because of the lack of floral specialization and the possibility of self-pollination ([ 29 ],[ 30 ]). However, a great reduction in habitat suitability has been predicted for Berardia under future climate change scenarios [ 30 ], on the basis of the results of species distribution modelling.…”