Land cover affects microclimate and temperature suitability for arbovirus transmission in an urban landscape

Abstract

The emergence of mosquito-transmitted viruses poses a global threat to human health. Combining mechanistic epidemiological models based on temperature-trait relationships with climatological data is a powerful technique for environmental risk assessment. However, a limitation of this approach is that the local microclimates experienced by mosquitoes can differ substantially from macroclimate measurements, particularly in heterogeneous urban environments. To address this scaling mismatch, we modeled spatial variation in microclimate temperatures and the thermal potential for dengue transmission by Aedes albopictus across an urban-to-rural gradient in Athens-Clarke County GA. Microclimate data were collected across gradients of tree cover and impervious surface cover. We developed statistical models to predict daily minimum and maximum microclimate temperatures using coarse-resolution gridded macroclimate data (4000 m) and high-resolution land cover data (30 m). The resulting high-resolution microclimate maps were integrated with temperaturedependent mosquito abundance and vectorial capacity models to generate monthly predictions for the summer and early fall of 2018. The highest vectorial capacities were predicted for patches of trees in urban areas with high cover of impervious surfaces. Vectorial capacity was most sensitive to tree cover during the summer and became more sensitive to impervious surfaces in the early fall. Predictions from the same models using temperature data from a local meteorological station consistently over-predicted vectorial capacity compared to the microclimate-based estimates. This work demonstrates that it is feasible to model variation in mosquito microenvironments across an urban-to-rural gradient using satellite Earth observations. Epidemiological models applied to the microclimate maps revealed localized patterns of temperature suitability for disease transmission that would not be detectable using macroclimate data. Incorporating microclimate data into disease transmission models PLOS NEGLECTED TROPICAL DISEASES

The effect of resource limitation on the temperature dependence of mosquito population fitness

“…Such systems are generally being used to test the effectiveness of novel biocontrol strategies, such as transgenic fungi [79], but they also could allow for the effects of temperature × resource interactions on fitness and abundance to be explored under conditions which more closely resemble natural environments. State of the art insect traps and geospatial mapping of microclimates and vegetation indices could also be used to study the effects of variation in temperature and resource availability on vector populations in the field [80,81].…”

Predictive model for microclimatic temperature and its use in mosquito population modeling

“…In addition to high morbidity and mortality rates from malaria and dengue fever, recent epidemics of Zika, West Nile and chikungunya have put nearly 4 billion people at risk across countries around the world 1 – 4 . Due to the role mosquitoes serve in the transmission of these diseases and nuisance created by the mosquito bites, it is critical to study the factors that influence growth and abundance of mosquito populations 5 , 6 .…”

Highlights of Medical Entomology, 2020

“…This was illustrated in Athens, GA, for Ae. albopictus , where urban areas with patches of trees led to the highest predicted vectorial capacity, a result of buffering in such areas against more extreme day- and night-time temperatures, resulting in temperatures that stay more closely to the thermal optimum of this species ( Wimberley et al 2020 ).…”