Land use and climate change impacts on global soil erosion by water (2015-2070)

Abstract

Soil erosion is a major global soil degradation threat to land, freshwater, and oceans. Wind and water are the major drivers, with water erosion over land being the focus of this work; excluding gullying and river bank erosion. Improving knowledge of the probable future rates of soil erosion, accelerated by human activity, is important both for policy makers engaged in land use decision-making and for earth-system modelers seeking to reduce uncertainty on global predictions. Here we predict future rates of erosion by modeling change in potential global soil erosion by water using three alternative (2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) Shared Socioeconomic Pathway and Representative Concentration Pathway (SSP-RCP) scenarios. Global predictions rely on a high spatial resolution Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE)-based semiempirical modeling approach (GloSEM). The baseline model (2015) predicts global potential soil erosion rates of 43−7+9.2 Pg yr−1, with current conservation agriculture (CA) practices estimated to reduce this by ∼5%. Our future scenarios suggest that socioeconomic developments impacting land use will either decrease (SSP1-RCP2.6–10%) or increase (SSP2-RCP4.5 +2%, SSP5-RCP8.5 +10%) water erosion by 2070. Climate projections, for all global dynamics scenarios, indicate a trend, moving toward a more vigorous hydrological cycle, which could increase global water erosion (+30 to +66%). Accepting some degrees of uncertainty, our findings provide insights into how possible future socioeconomic development will affect soil erosion by water using a globally consistent approach. This preliminary evidence seeks to inform efforts such as those of the United Nations to assess global soil erosion and inform decision makers developing national strategies for soil conservation.

Development of a Spatial Model for Soil Quality Assessment under Arid and Semi-Arid Conditions

“…The meaning of the soil quality index (SQI) is the ability of the soil to function within an ecosystem boundary, whether managed or natural, and to achieve sustainability of crop productivity while maintaining soil from degradation processes [5,6]. In many regions around the world, soil quality is declining rapidly [7], due to many reasons, including, but not limited to, changes in land use types with intensive land use [8,9]. Therefore, the assessment of SQ is considered the basis for monitoring and maintaining the sustainability of agricultural systems [10].…”

Assessment of Current and Future Climate Change Impact on Soil Loss Rate of Agewmariam Watershed, Northern Ethiopia

“…15 Changes in temperature and precipitation will impact plant biomass production, infiltration rate, soil moisture, land use, and crop management and hence affect runoff and soil erosion. 16 According to Borrelli et al, 17 global water erosion due to climate change could increase by up (+30% to +66%) over the next 50 years. The study (Moges et al 18 ) reported that Ethiopia is 1 of the countries highly affected by increased soil erosion due to climate change.…”

Spatial co‐localisation of extreme weather events: a clear and present danger

“…For soil C stores, reduced extreme cold and extreme rainfall present the largest risk. Continuation of this trend will have large implications for the C cycle and is likely to increase the release of soil C and decrease sequestration through increased wet–dry cycles, microbial respiration and erosion losses (Schimel et al ., 2007; Kim et al ., 2012; Reichstein et al ., 2013; Petrakis et al ., 2017; Borrelli et al ., 2020) (Table 1). Our analysis also indicates that large expanses of upland bog or lowland fen peat are located in regions experiencing higher temperatures, droughts and therefore potential fire risk.…”