Land Use Changes, Disturbances, and Their Interactions on Future Forest Aboveground Biomass Dynamics in the Northern US

Abstract

Land use change (LUC), disturbances, and their interactions play an important role in regional forest carbon (C) dynamics. Here we quantified how these activities and events may influence future aboveground biomass (AGB) dynamics in forests using national forest inventory (NFI) and Landsat time series data in the Northern United States (US). Total forest AGB predictions were based on simulations of diameter growth, mortality, and recruitment using matrix growth models under varying levels of LUC and disturbance severity (low (L), medium (M), and high (H)) every five years from 2018 to 2098. Land use change included the integrated effects of deforestation and reforestation/afforestation (forest [F]→agriculture [A], settlements [S, urbanization/other], and A&S→F), specifically, conversion from F→A, F→S, F→A&S, A→F, S→F, and A&S→F. Disturbances included natural and anthropogenic disturbances such as wildfire, weather, insects and disease, and forest harvesting. Results revealed that, when simultaneously considering both medium LUC and disturbances, total forest AGB predictions of LUC + fire, LUC + weather, LUC + insect & disease, and LUC + harvest indicated substantial increases in regional C stocks (± standard deviation) from 1.88 (±0.13) to 3.29 (±0.28), 3.10 (±0.24), 2.91 (±0.19), and 2.68 (±0.17) Pg C, respectively, from 2018 to 2098. An uncertainty analysis with fuzzy sets suggested that medium LUC under disturbances would lead to greater forest AGB C uptake than undisturbed forest C uptake with high certainty, except for LUC + harvest. The matrix models in this study were parameterized using NFI and Landsat data from the past few decades. Thus, our results imply that if recent trends persist, LUC will remain an important driver of forest C uptake, while disturbances may result in C emissions rather than undisturbed forest C uptake by 2098. The combined effects of LUC and disturbances may serve as an important driver of C uptake and emissions in the Northern US well into the 21st century.

Approaches of Satellite Remote Sensing for the Assessment of Above-Ground Biomass across Tropical Forests: Pan-tropical to National Scales

“…Figure 3 shows the distribution of forests across the tropics derived from the recently released global LC product by the European Space Agency (ESA) under the Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) [55]. Changes in LC dynamically interact with the regional and global carbon cycle and influence AGB [56]. The changes in physiology, functional attributes and allometry of different vegetation types varies across space and have a different environmental response.…”

Quantifying the uncertainty caused by sampling, modeling, and field measurements in the estimation of AGB with information of the national forest inventory in Durango, Mexico

“…Forests are therefore referred to as carbon sinks or reserves (IPCC, 2003), and cover about 30.6% of the global land area (FAO, 2015). Since forests on their own cannot increase CO 2 capture (Ma et al, 2019), forest plantations (Brancalion et al, 2019), forest management for wood products extraction (Profloresta, 2008;SEMARNAT, 2014), promoting the use of wood in construction (FAO, 2015), among other activities, increase the natural capacity of the forest to capture CO 2 . Also, future land-use change (LUC) scenarios combined with disturbance (wildfire, weather, insects, disease) have been evaluated, finding more AGB storage in the scenarios than in the undisturbed forest (Ma et al, 2019).…”

“…Since forests on their own cannot increase CO 2 capture (Ma et al, 2019), forest plantations (Brancalion et al, 2019), forest management for wood products extraction (Profloresta, 2008;SEMARNAT, 2014), promoting the use of wood in construction (FAO, 2015), among other activities, increase the natural capacity of the forest to capture CO 2 . Also, future land-use change (LUC) scenarios combined with disturbance (wildfire, weather, insects, disease) have been evaluated, finding more AGB storage in the scenarios than in the undisturbed forest (Ma et al, 2019). With these dynamics in the forest, it is important to evaluate their AGB stocks and the changes associated with these AGB stocks: deforestation, reforestation, increase in agricultural areas, increase in urban areas, among others (IPCC, 2003(IPCC, , 2015.…”