Landslide risk assessment considering socionatural factors: methodology and application to Cubatão municipality, São Paulo, Brazil

Hader, Paulo Rodolpho Pereira; Reis, Fábio Augusto Gomes Vieira; Peixoto, Anna Silvia Palcheco

doi:10.1007/s11069-021-04991-4

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…The Poverty Factor, Elderly Population and Demographic Density were the three indices considered for the social criterion, as shown in equation ( 5), according to the methodology proposed by Palmeira [24] and by Hadder [25] 𝑆𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑎 = 𝑃𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 + 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑎 + 𝐸𝑙𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑦 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑎 (5)…”

Section: Social Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Risk Matrix adapted of [25]. S1: very low susceptibility; S2: low susceptibility; S3: medium susceptibility; S4: high susceptibility; S5: very high susceptibility; T1: very low rainfall; T2: low rainfall; T3: medium rainfall; T4: high rainfall; T5: very high rainfall; R0: null risk; R1: extremely low risk; R2: very low risk; R3: low risk; R4: medium risk.…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hader [25] uses a similar matrix as the one presented in Figure 2 for landslide analyses in the São Paulo State coastline. The adopted methodology used spatial information on socio-natural susceptibility and rainfall thresholds to produce a risk map.…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk Matrix of Hydrological Disasters Combining Rainfall Thresholds and Social-Environmental Criteria

Magalhães¹,

Peixoto²,

Manzato³

et al. 2023

Adv Environ Eng Res

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This paper presents a procedure for risk assessment for hydrological disasters considering the threshold rainfall and environmental and social criteria. A case study was carried out to test its feasibility in the northern region of the State of São Paulo, Brazil. The advantage of this procedure is that it only uses data available on government institutions and websites. For this reason, other regions and countries can easily adapt the procedure to their reality. Initially, the hydrological disasters were obtained including date, type of disaster, geographical coordinates and the number of victims. Next, for each disaster, the daily rains corresponding to the dates of the events were obtained from government websites, to establish the rainfall thresholds. Social criteria weighted the poverty index, population density, and the elderly population. The Environmental criteria weighted hydrology, geomorphology and geology factors. An open-source Geographic Information System (GIS) enabled the spatial distribution of disasters through the characterization of the physical environment in hydrology, geomorphology and geology features. The risk assessment was then obtained by combining the rainfall-triggering event with the environmental Susceptibility with social vulnerability. As a result, 31 of the 138 studied municipalities suffered from hydrological disasters, accounting for 99 occurrences between 2002 and 2017.

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Section: Social Vulnerabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

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Risk Matrix of Hydrological Disasters Combining Rainfall Thresholds and Social-Environmental Criteria

Magalhães¹,

Peixoto²,

Manzato³

et al. 2023

Adv Environ Eng Res

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“…Landslides in this region are closely linked to significant cumulative rainfall over a period of 3-4 consecutive days, ranging from 250 to 400 mm, followed by intense precipitation episodes within a single day, surpassing 150-200 mm per day [6]. Besides that, soil moisture at or close to saturation are related to elevated water table level and increased material plasticity, ultimately destabilizing slopes and triggering landslides [7], particularly when intense and shortlived precipitation events occur [8,9]. Therefore, soil conditions are a crucial factor in determining the susceptibility of slopes to such precipitation patterns.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extreme rainfall and landslides as a response to human-induced climate change: a case study at Baixada Santista, Brazil, 2020

de Souza,

Crespo,

Silva

et al. 2023

Preprint

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In March 2020, an extreme rainfall in Baixada Santista, Brazil, led to a series of landslides affecting more than 2,800 people and resulting losses exceeding USD 43 million. This attribution study compared extreme rainfall in two distinct runs from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM3-GA6 model: one with all forcings and the other with natural forcings only, considering antecedent conditions and soil moisture (extreme 60-day rainfall, Rx60day) and heavy rainfall (extreme 3-day rainfall, Rx3day) which may trigger landslides. The long-term set-up became 74% more likely, while the short-term trigger was 46% more likely. The anthropogenic contribution to changes in rainfall accounted for 20-42% of the total losses and damages. The greatest economic losses occurred in Guarujá (42%), followed by São Vicente (30%) and Santos (28%). Landslides were responsible for 47% of homes damaged, 85% of homes destroyed, all reported injuries, and 51% of deaths associated with heavy rainfall. Changes in land cover and increased urbanization showed a pronounced increase in urbanized area in Guarujá (107%), São Vicente (61.7%) and Santos (36.9%) and a reduction in farming area. Population growth estimates also indicate higher exposure to extreme rainfall events. The proportion of irregular and/or precarious housing indicates vulnerability, with Guarujá being the municipality with the highest number (34.8%) of dwellings of this type. Our estimates suggest that extreme precipitation events are having shorter return periods due to climate change and increased urbanization and population growth is exposing more people to these events. These findings are especially important for decision-makers in the context of disaster risk reduction and mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

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Landslide Risk Assessment, Awareness, and Risk Mitigation: Case Studies and Major Insights

Humayain Kabir

2024

Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research

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Landslide risk assessment considering socionatural factors: methodology and application to Cubatão municipality, São Paulo, Brazil

Cited by 8 publications

References 78 publications

Risk Matrix of Hydrological Disasters Combining Rainfall Thresholds and Social-Environmental Criteria

Risk Matrix of Hydrological Disasters Combining Rainfall Thresholds and Social-Environmental Criteria

Extreme rainfall and landslides as a response to human-induced climate change: a case study at Baixada Santista, Brazil, 2020

Landslide Risk Assessment, Awareness, and Risk Mitigation: Case Studies and Major Insights

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