Large-Scale Vole Population Synchrony in Central Europe Revealed by Kestrel Breeding Performance

Abstract

Rodents are classical model species to investigate spatial synchrony in population fluctuation. Yet, previous studies have been strongly biased geographically toward high latitude (boreal ecosystem) and limited in their spatial scale, i.e., few sampling sites separated by a few tens of kilometers. Both aspects currently limit our understanding of rodent population dynamics across space. In this study we investigate vole population synchrony at a large spatial scale in central Europe. We used long-term breeding success of a vole-eating raptor specialist, the European kestrel, as an indicator of vole abundance. We first demonstrate that the productivity of kestrels is highly dependent on the availability of voles and as such is a good proxy of vole abundance. Secondly, we assessed the spatial synchrony of kestrel productivity and its scaling. We found that kestrel productivity fluctuated synchronously at a large spatial scale, up to a distance of 300 km. This result suggests that vole populations in central Europe varied in synchrony at large spatial scales, similarly as in northern latitudes. The most likely mechanism resulting in such large scale synchrony of vole populations is synchronized density-independent environmental conditions.

Spatial synchrony of breeding success in the blacklegged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla reflects the spatial dynamics of its sandeel prey

“…Haynes et al 2009), even to the extent that studying the patterns of synchrony in predators can tell us something about a less wellstudied prey population (e.g. Fay et al 2020). In particular, interactions with prey as a driver of synchrony is likely to be expected where bottom-up effects are strong, such as in our case, where breeding success and food conditions are closely linked in kittiwakes (e.g.…”

From pattern to process? Dual travelling waves, with contrasting propagation speeds, best describe a self‐organised spatio‐temporal pattern in population growth of a cyclic rodent

“…To understand this apparent contradiction, it is important to note that synchrony occurs not as a dichotomous state but as a spectrum (Bjørnstad et al 1999; Koenig, 1999, see Figure 1). Nevertheless, the dichotomous representation of synchrony has led to an approach whereby evidence of synchrony (notably synchrony which decays with distance) can be perceived as evidence, or lack‐there‐of, of true synchrony (Andersson & Jonasson, 1986; Erlinge et al, 1999; Fay et al, 2020; Huitu et al, 2003; Huitu et al, 2008; Lambin et al, 2006; Sundell et al, 2004). The terms ‘synchrony’ and ‘asynchrony’, which imply a dichotomous state, may lead to the view that there are no nuanced forms of synchrony.…”

“…While the Moran effect is often suggested as the cause of synchrony (e.g. Fay et al, 2020), microcosm experiments have strongly implicated an interaction between the dispersal of organisms and their trophic interactions, through the differential depletion of more dense populations, as a potent cause of synchrony (Fox et al, 2013; Vasseur & Fox, 2009).…”

Animal Coloration in the Anthropocene

“…As melanin pigmentation in male kestrels may be attributed to quality signaling, either toward females for mate selection, or to advertise sex to parents for differential allocation of resources, large scale climate or land use changes could lead to fluctuations in prey supply and subsequently the quality of kestrel nestlings. New data (Fay et al, 2020) on the synchrony between vole population cycles and kestrel breeding patterns sets this dynamic in perspective as a possible case study for the effects of climate change on dietary sources of melanin pigmentation.…”