Theoretical studies suggest that temporal covariation among and temporal autocorrelation within demographic rates are important features of population dynamics. Yet, empirical studies have rarely focused on temporal covariation and autocorrelation limiting our understanding of these patterns in natural populations. This lack of knowledge restrains our ability to fully understand population dynamics and to make reliable population forecasts. In order to fill this gap, we used a long‐term monitoring (15 years) of a kestrel Falco tinnunculus population to investigate covariation and autocorrelation in survival and reproduction at the population level and their impact on population dynamics. Using Bayesian joint analyses, we found support for positive covariation between survival and reproduction, but weak autocorrelation through time. This positive covariation was stronger in juveniles compared with adults. As expected for a specialized predator, we found that the reproductive performance was strongly related to an index of vole abundance explaining 86% of the temporal variation. This very strong relationship suggests that the temporally variable prey abundance may drive the positive covariation between survival and reproduction in this kestrel population. Simulations suggested that the observed effect size of covariation could be strong enough to affect population dynamics. More generally, positive covariation and autocorrelation have a destabilizing effect increasing substantially the temporal variability of population size.

The identification of the source-sink status of a population is critical for the establishment of conservation plans and enacting smart management decisions. We developed an integrated population model to formally assess the source status of a kestrel Falco tinnunculus population breeding in nest boxes in Switzerland. We estimated juvenile and adult survival, reproduction and net dispersal (emigration/immigration) by jointly analyzing capture-recapture, dead recovery, breeding monitoring and population survey data. We also investigated the role of nest boxes on kestrel demography and assessed the contributions of vital rates to realized population growth rates. The results indicate that the kestrel population breeding in nest boxes has acted as a source over the 15 years of the study duration. A quantitative approach suggests that a substantial number of individuals have emigrated annually from this population likely affecting the population dynamics outside the management area. Variation in fecundity explained 34% of the temporal variability of the population growth rate. Moreover, a literature review suggests that kestrel pairs produce on average 1.4 chicks more per breeding attempt in nest boxes compared to natural open nests. Together, these findings suggest that fecundity was an important driver for the dynamics of this population and that nest boxes have contributed to its raise. Nest boxes are regularly used as an efficient tool for conservation management. We suggest that such a conservation action can result in the establishment of a source population being beneficial for populations both inside and outside the managed area.

Rodents are classical model species to investigate spatial synchrony in population fluctuation. Yet, previous studies have been strongly biased geographically toward high latitude (boreal ecosystem) and limited in their spatial scale, i.e., few sampling sites separated by a few tens of kilometers. Both aspects currently limit our understanding of rodent population dynamics across space. In this study we investigate vole population synchrony at a large spatial scale in central Europe. We used long-term breeding success of a vole-eating raptor specialist, the European kestrel, as an indicator of vole abundance. We first demonstrate that the productivity of kestrels is highly dependent on the availability of voles and as such is a good proxy of vole abundance. Secondly, we assessed the spatial synchrony of kestrel productivity and its scaling. We found that kestrel productivity fluctuated synchronously at a large spatial scale, up to a distance of 300 km. This result suggests that vole populations in central Europe varied in synchrony at large spatial scales, similarly as in northern latitudes. The most likely mechanism resulting in such large scale synchrony of vole populations is synchronized density-independent environmental conditions.

BioOne Complete (complete.BioOne.org) is a full-text database of 200 subscribed and open-access titles in the biological, ecological, and environmental sciences published by nonprofit societies, associations, museums, institutions, and presses.

No abstract