Late frost damage risk for viticulture under future climate conditions: a case study for the Luxembourgish winegrowing region

Abstract

Background and Aims: Late frosts are a significant risk to grape production in frost-prone viticultural regions. Increasing air temperature because of climate change is likely to advance grape budburst and last frost events in spring. So far, it is unclear whether one trend will be more pronounced than the other, and hence, whether the risk of late frost damage will increase or decrease. The aim of this work was to investigate the future frost risk in the Luxembourgish winegrowing region by assessing the effect of simulated future climate conditions on the timing of budburst and last frost date. Methods and Results: Late frost risk was assessed by combining: (i) a phenological model for budburst of the grapevine (DORMPHOT); and (ii) ensemble-based projections of future air temperature. Analyses indicated that increasing spring temperature will advance the timing of budburst and the date of the last frost. This advancement, however, will be more pronounced for last frost events than for budburst. Conclusions: Modelled projections showed that the frequency of spring frost damage in the Luxembourgish winegrowing region will decrease, without completely excluding them for the near (2021-2050) or the far future . Significance of the Study: The application of a combination of a phenological model for grape budburst and ensemble-based projections of future air temperature enables the assessment of the future late frost risk in a frost-prone viticulture region.

Yield of Müller-Thurgau and Riesling grapevines is altered by meteorological conditions in the current and previous growing seasons

“…For different conditions or for other cultivars, the models could be parameterized based on regional yield data and meteorological records. Coupling the models with simulations of grape phenology (Molitor et al, 2014b) and with future climate projections for Luxembourg (Molitor et al, 2014a) could support long-term strategic planning in the selection of cultivars for future plantings. However, when using the models in climate change impact studies to predict grape yield in the future, some precautions need to be taken: (i) models should not be used outside their calibration frame (e.g., higher temperatures) ; and (ii) legal and market conditions, plant material (e.g., new clones, rootstocks), or viticultural practices might be adapted to the new conditions.…”

The future potential for wine production in Scotland under high-end climate change

“…Jones et al 2005), how these changes have affected and are affecting the phenological stages of vines (de Orduña 2010, Jones and Davis 2000, Ramos et al 2015, Schultze et al 2016b, Webb et al 2007, which current wine producing areas may become unsuitable in the future (Jones et al 2010, Tóth andVégvári 2016), which varieties may be suitable in changing climate conditions (Schultze et al 2016a), how climate change influences incremental and transformative change in the wine grape sector (e.g. Battaglini et al 2009, Park et al 2012, Schultze et al 2016b) and the problems faced by existing wine producing areas in adapting to climate change (Metzger and Rounsevell, 2011), including late frost risk (Molitor et al 2014). Existing research on the potential poleward expansion of suitable viticulture areas in response to high-end climate change is limited, but shows that this trend is both projected and already occurring in the USA (e.g.…”

Application of crop modelling to portuguese viticulture: implementation and added-values for strategic planning

“…Extreme weather events, such as late spring frosts, hail and heat waves (above 35 ºC), may severely damage grapevine leaves and berries (e.g. sunscald) and are a significant risk to this crop (Trought et al, 1999;Chuine et al, 2004;Molitor et al, 2014).…”

“…Crop models are a key tool to determine the impact of climate change on crop growth and to evaluate the potential of new viticultural regions (Webb et al, 2007;Bois et al, 2008;Kwon et al, 2008;Scaglione et al, 2008;Caffarra and Eccel, 2010;Duchene et al, 2010;Caffarra and Eccel, 2011) and to prevent, or minimize, the impact of climate extremes (Molitor et al, 2014). Crop models can also be used to assess carbon sequestration and emissions of other greenhouse gases, assisting the design of mitigation measures in conformity with the 20-20-20 commitments of the EU Directive 2009/28/EC.…”