Late‐twentieth century changes in glacier extent in the Ak‐shirak Range, Central Asia, determined from historical data and ASTER imagery

Khromova, T.; Dyurgerov, Mark B.; Barry, Roger G.

doi:10.1029/2003gl017233

Cited by 77 publications

(63 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…[12] Analysis of global mass balance data [Haeberli et al, 1999;Dyurgerov and Meier, 2000], recent direct measurements with new technologies [Arendt et al, 2002;Rignot et al, 2003] and latest studies with satellite data [Paul, 2002b;Khromova, 2003] confirm that current rates of glacier retreat have strongly increased above long-term averages. In the Alps, the observed non-uniform changes in glacier geometry (e.g., emerging rock outcrops, separation from tributaries, disintegration) indicate a massive downwasting since 1985 rather than a dynamic glacier response to a changed climate.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[3] In the extraordinary warm decade of the 1990s many glaciers experienced large reductions in area [Paul, 2002b;Khromova et al, 2003] and volume [Arendt et al, 2002;Rignot et al, 2003] with unknown magnitude at a global scale [Dyurgerov, 2002]. Glaciers in the European Alps are comparably small and their melt will not contribute significantly to global sea level rise [Van de Wal and Wild, 2001].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rapid disintegration of Alpine glaciers observed with satellite data

Paul

Kääb

Maisch

et al. 2004

Geophysical Research Letters

454

415

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[1] Analyses of multispectral satellite data indicate accelerated glacier decline around the globe since the 1980s. By using digitized glacier outlines inferred from the 1973 inventory and Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite data from 1985 to 1999, we obtained area changes of about 930 Alpine glaciers. The 18% area reduction as observed for the period 1985 to 1999 (À1.3% a À1 ) corresponds to a seven times higher loss rate compared to the 1850 -1973 decadal mean. Extrapolation of area change rates and cumulative mass balances to all Alpine glaciers yields a corresponding volume loss of about 25 km 3 since 1973. Highly individual and non-uniform changes in glacier geometry (disintegration) indicate a massive down-wasting rather than a dynamic response to a changed climate. Our results imply stronger ongoing glacier retreat than assumed so far and a probable further enhancement of glacier disintegration by positive feedbacks.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid disintegration of Alpine glaciers observed with satellite data

Paul

Kääb

Maisch

et al. 2004

Geophysical Research Letters

454

415

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“…Vilesov and Uvarov, 2001;Khromova et al, 2003;Jing et al, 2006;Li et al, 2006;Hagg et al, 2007;Bolch, 2007;Ozmonov et al, 2013;Petrakov et al, 2016). Glacier volume assessments from satellite surveys confirm a trend toward mass loss over the recent decades for the Central and Inner Tien-Shan (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Mass balance observations and reconstruction for Batysh Sook Glacier, Tien Shan, from 2004 to 2016

Kenzhebaev

Barandun

Kronenberg

et al. 2017

Cold Regions Science and Technology

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“…The total glacierized area is 10 289 km 2 (1.3 % of total 799 261 km 2 basin area) in the Amu Darya basin and 1596 km 2 (0.14 % of total 1 117 625 km 2 basin area) in the Syr Darya basin, as calculated from the Randolph Glacier Inventory version 2.0 (Arendt et al, 2012), which for Central Asia is a compilation of data acquired between 1960 and 2010. Significant reductions in area and volume have been reported for the Tien Shan (Khromova et al, 2003;Aizen et al, 2007a, b;Bolch, 2007;Narama et al, 2010;Siegfried et al, 2012) and Pamir mountains (Khromova et al, 2006) during the last decades.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

Lutz

Immerzeel

Gobiet

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Central Asian water resources largely depend on melt water generated in the Pamir and Tien Shan mountain ranges. To estimate future water availability in this region, it is necessary to use climate projections to estimate the future glacier extent and volume. In this study, we evaluate the impact of uncertainty in climate change projections on the future glacier extent in the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. To this end we use the latest climate change projections generated for the upcoming IPCC report (CMIP5) and, for comparison, projections used in the fourth IPCC assessment (CMIP3). With these projections we force a regionalized glacier mass balance model, and estimate changes in the basins' glacier extent as a function of the glacier size distribution in the basins and projected temperature and precipitation. This glacier mass balance model is specifically developed for implementation in large scale hydrological models, where the spatial resolution does not allow for simulating individual glaciers and data scarcity is an issue. Although the CMIP5 ensemble results in greater regional warming than the CMIP3 ensemble and the range in projections for temperature as well as precipitation is wider for the CMIP5 than for the CMIP3, the spread in projections of future glacier extent in Central Asia is similar for both ensembles. This is because differences in temperature rise are small during periods of maximum melt (July-September) while differences in precipitation change are small during the period of maximum accumulation (October-February). However, the model uncertainty due to parameter uncertainty is high, and has roughly the same importance as uncertainty in the climate projections. Uncertainty about the size of the decline in glacier extent remains large, making estimates of future Central Asian glacier evolution and downstream water availability uncertain.

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Late‐twentieth century changes in glacier extent in the Ak‐shirak Range, Central Asia, determined from historical data and ASTER imagery

Cited by 77 publications

References 18 publications

Rapid disintegration of Alpine glaciers observed with satellite data

Rapid disintegration of Alpine glaciers observed with satellite data

Mass balance observations and reconstruction for Batysh Sook Glacier, Tien Shan, from 2004 to 2016

Comparison of climate change signals in CMIP3 and CMIP5 multi-model ensembles and implications for Central Asian glaciers

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