Leapfrogging to Renewable Energy: The Opportunity for Unmet Electricity Markets

Abstract

Electricity plays a crucial role in the socio-economic development of any country. Developing countries, however, unlike their developed counterparts, do not have electricity markets that are fully satisfied, nor are they 'laden' with large-scale infrastructure that could create inertia about making the transition. The objective of this paper is to identify the potential trajectories for unmet electricity markets in sub-Saharan Africa to leapfrog to renewable energy as they strive to accelerate access to electricity. The following key drivers of renewable energy leapfrogging in unmet electricity markets were identified from the review: the need to achieve sustainability targets; the availability of renewable energy resources on a sufficient scale; growing investment in renewable energy; maturing niche renewable technologies; a weakening renewable energy cost hypothesis; and a growing population and increasing urbanisation. The paper further conceptualised three potential transition paradigms: revolutionary, scattered, and coned pathways. These paradigms were defined by the pace and magnitude of the transition that can be observed, and depend on the intensity of the identified drivers in a specific unmet electricity market. The paper argues that the largely unmet electricity market in sub-Saharan Africa provides an opportunity to leapfrog the fossilintensive energy regime to adopt a renewable energy regime. OPSOMMINGElektrisiteit speel 'n belangrike rol in die sosio-ekonomiese ontwikkeling van enige land. In teenstelling met hul ontwikkelde eweknieë, is ontwikkelende lande se elektrisiteitsmarkte nog nie versadig nie, en is hulle ook boonop nie opgesaal met grootskaalse infrastruktuur wat oorgang sou vertraag nie. Die doel van hierdie artikel is om die potensiële trajekte vir onontginde elektrisiteitsmarkte in sub-Sahara-Afrika te identifiseer om oor te skakel na hernubare energie in hul strewe daarna om toegang tot elektrisiteit te versnel. Die behoefte om volhoubaarheidsdoelwitte te bereik word ondersoek, asook die beskikbaarheid van hernubare energiebronne op voldoende skaal; toenemende belegging in hernubare energie; die ontwikkeling van nie-hernubare tegnologie; die hipotese rakende die verminderde koste verbonde aan hernubare energie-infrakstruktuur; en die bevolkingsaanwas en verstedeliking. Die artikel stel ook 3 omskakeling-paradigmas voor: revolusionêre, verspreide of gefokusde roetes. Dit was gedefinieer deur die tempo en omvang van die omskakeling waargeneem, en hang af van die intensiteit van die geïdentifiseerde drywers in die mark. Die argument word gemaak dat die onbevredigde elektrisiteitsmark in die sub-Sahara mark geleenthede bied om die fosielbrandstof-intensiewe energie-opwekking verby te steek en sodoende 'n hernubare energie regime in werking te stel.

Mediating household energy transitions through co-design in urban Kenya, Uganda and South Africa

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New models for improving teaching and training in engineering and technology transfer in South Africa

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Sustainable energy transition framework for unmet electricity markets

“…Implementation of transition in the unmet electricity markets can therefore occur in two ways: from traditional to regime, or from regime to niche. However, the markets in the traditional energy arena can leapfrog to niche technologies (see Batinge et al, 2017) without going through regime technologies because of the low path-dependence due created by the lack of conventional energy infrastructure. We however acknowledge that political and socio-cultural norms can still serve as lock-ins, and inhibit leapfrogging.…”