2014
DOI: 10.1068/a46257
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Learning and Envisioning under Climatic Uncertainty: An African Experience

Abstract: Learning about and embracing change and uncertainty are essential for responding to climate change. Creativity, critical reflection, and cogenerative inquiry can enhance adaptive capacity, or the ability to anticipate, prepare for, and respond to adverse future impacts. However, precisely how learning about change and its driving forces occurs and how experiences are combined with envisioned yet indefinite prospects of the future are poorly understood. We present two linked methodological tools-an assessment o… Show more

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Cited by 45 publications
(28 citation statements)
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“…One of the reasons for this outcome (which can also be seen as a limitation of this study) is that the two other dimensions require considerable time and multiple iterations (to grapple with incomplete information and uncertainties), and would require modification of the game design in order to target other future pathways. Furthermore, there is a need to couple the game exercise with additional tools such as participatory scenario building and future envisioning exercises to help identify innovative solutions (Rhea 2005; Badmos et al 2014; Tschakert et al 2014). However, because some of the determinants of anticipatory learning are challenging to measure, a follow-up study is needed that targets these specific dimensions.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…One of the reasons for this outcome (which can also be seen as a limitation of this study) is that the two other dimensions require considerable time and multiple iterations (to grapple with incomplete information and uncertainties), and would require modification of the game design in order to target other future pathways. Furthermore, there is a need to couple the game exercise with additional tools such as participatory scenario building and future envisioning exercises to help identify innovative solutions (Rhea 2005; Badmos et al 2014; Tschakert et al 2014). However, because some of the determinants of anticipatory learning are challenging to measure, a follow-up study is needed that targets these specific dimensions.…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This benchmark includes emphasis on exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; attention to crossscale dynamics in affecting vulnerability; recognition of feedbacks and nonlinearities in system responses; evaluation of the usability of science; attention to coupled human-environmental system dynamics; and a focus on both present day and future vulnerabilities (e.g. Ford and Smit 2004, Fussel and Klein 2006, Smit and Wandel 2006, O'Brien et al 2007, Haalboom and Natcher 2012, Lemos et al 2012, Tschakert et al 2014.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…We see that the participants' mental model of the region's social-ecological system ( Figure 2) tells of mutually reinforcing feedbacks between social and environmental shifts and ever-increasing complexities and changes. These feedbacks and cascading effects can increase uncertainty and decrease adaptive capacity [29,32] because decision making under uncertainty inhibits the ability to anticipate and prepare for future risks and issues that may emerge [69][70][71]. Uncertainty tends to force decisions towards chaos, with great uncertainty about outcomes and no consensus on what to do, while known outcomes and consensus on how to handle them facilitate rational decision making.…”
Section: Summary Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%