Learning versus habit formation: Optimal timing of lockdown for disease containment

Bandyopadhyay, Siddhartha; Chatterjee, Kalyan; Das, Kaustav; Roy, Jaideep

doi:10.1016/j.jmateco.2020.11.008

Cited by 18 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Indeed, trust in government has been an important factor that has affected several decisions made by the government on lockdowns and may have potentially affected its timing and intensity. 18 It has been suggested that lack of trust may well be rooted in historical practices in which minority groups were unethically exploited in medical experiments. 19 This may also explain why younger sections of the BAME population are less hesitant even though their objective risk of facing death or serious illness from the disease is lower.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in the UK: A longitudinal household cross-sectional study

Chaudhuri

Chakrabarti

Chandan

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Background: The global morbidity and mortality burden of COVID19 has been substantial, often widening preexisting inequalities. The approved COVID19 vaccines have shown great promise in reducing disease transmission and severity of outcomes. However, the success of the COVID19 vaccine rollout is dependent on public acceptance and willingness to be vaccinated. In this study, we aim to examine how the attitude towards public sector officials and the government impact vaccine willingness with a secondary aim to understand the impact of ethnicity on this relationship. Methods: This crosssectional study used data from a UK population based longitudinal household survey (Understanding Society COVID19 study, Understanding Society: the UK Household Longitudinal Study) between April 2020 to January 2021. Data from 22421 participants in Waves 6 and 7 of the study were included after excluding missing data. Demographic details in addition to previous survey responses relating to public sector/governmental trust were included in as covariates in the main analyses. A logit model was produced to describe the association between public sector/governmental mistrust and the willingness for vaccination with interaction terms included to account for ethnicity/socioeconomic status. Findings: In support of existing literature, we identified those from BAME groups were more likely to be unwilling to take the COVID19 vaccine. We found that positive opinions towards public sector officials (OR 2.680: 95% CI 1.888 3.805) and the UK government (OR 3.400; 95% CI 2.454 4.712) led to substantive increase in vaccine willingness. Most notably we identified this effect to be vary across ethnicity and socioeconomic status with those from South Asian background (OR 4.513; 95% CI 1.012 20.123) the most unwilling to be vaccinated when their trust in public sector officials were affected. Interpretation: These findings suggests that trust in public sector officials may play a key factor in the low vaccination rates particularly seen in at risk groups. Given the additional morbidity/mortality risk posed by COVID19 to those from lower socioeconomic or ethnic minority backgrounds, there needs to be urgent public health action to review how to tailor health promotion advice given to these groups and examine methods to improve trust in public sector officials and the Government. Funding: No funding

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in the UK: A longitudinal household cross-sectional study

Chaudhuri

Chakrabarti

Chandan

et al. 2021

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Finally, Bandyopadhyay et al . (2021) consider a model of a disease with unknown virulence to illustrate the trade‐off between learning and habit formation (e.g. social distancing, developing hygienic habit) that have opposing impacts on the timing of a lockdown.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, based on the prior probability of the disease being virulent, Bandyopadhyay et al . (2021) characterize the timing, intensity and duration of a lockdown with the above‐mentioned trade‐offs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Covid‐19 Control and the Economy: Test, Test, Test*

Taamouti

2021

Oxf Bull Econ Stat

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Hard lockdowns have left policymakers to face the ethical dilemma of choosing between saving lives and saving the economy. However, massive testing could have helped to respond more effectively to Covid‐19 crisis. In this paper, we study the trade‐off between infection control, lockdown and testing. The aim is to understand how these policies can be effectively combined to contain Covid‐19 without damaging the economy. An extended SIR epidemic model is developed to identify the set of testing and lockdown levels that lead to a reproduction number below one, thus to infection control and saving lives. Depending on whether the testing policy is static or dynamic, the model suggests that testing 4% to 7% of the population is the way to safely reopen the economy and the society.

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“…Without using simulations or calibration, but simple numerical calculations, we are able to estimate the level of testing capacity (4% to 7% of the population daily) that is needed to control the infection and safely reopen the economy and the society. Finally, Bandyopadhyay et al (2021) consider a model of a disease with unknown virulence to illustrate the trade-off between learning and habit formation (e.g. social distancing, developing hygienic habit) that have opposing impacts on the timing of a lockdown.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…On the other hand, against this benefit of an early lockdown, their model shows that there is a cost from loss of information about the virulence and spread of the disease in the population in addition to a direct cost to the economy. Moreover, based on the prior probability of the disease being virulent, Bandyopadhyay et al (2021) characterize the timing, intensity and duration of a lockdown with the above-mentioned trade-offs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Control and the Economy: Test, Test, Test

Taamouti

2020

SSRN Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Hard lockdowns have left policymakers to face the ethical dilemma of choosing between saving lives and saving the economy. However, massive testing could have helped to respond more effectively to Covid-19 crisis. In this paper, we study the trade-off between infection control, lockdown and testing. The aim is to understand how these policies can be effectively combined to contain Covid-19 without damaging the economy. An extended SIR epidemic model is developed to identify the set of testing and lockdown levels that lead to a reproduction number below one, thus to infection control and saving lives. Depending on whether the testing policy is static or dynamic, the model suggests that testing 4% to 7% of the population is the way to safely reopen the economy and the society.

show abstract

Learning versus habit formation: Optimal timing of lockdown for disease containment

Cited by 18 publications

References 21 publications

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in the UK: A longitudinal household cross-sectional study

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in the UK: A longitudinal household cross-sectional study

Covid‐19 Control and the Economy: Test, Test, Test*

COVID-19 Control and the Economy: Test, Test, Test

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