Lending Channel of Monetary Policy in Russia: Microeconomic Estimates for Retail and Corporative Segments of Credit Market

Mamonov, M.Ye.

doi:10.31737/2221-2264-2018-37-1-5

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Rather, a question is posed whether an imbalance observed between these two transaction types is able to send a signal about the approaching detection of NNW. Moreover, this study is corroborated by a number of other papers (Mian et al, 2013;Mian et al, 2017;Beck et al, 2012;Mamonov, 2018c), which find that households' ability to control their risks is much more limited than that of firms. 6 These issues have not yet been dealt with in previous studies on either Russia or any other countries.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 81%

Maturity Structure of Banking Transactions and Its Role in Predicting Negative Net Worth of Banks

Mikhail¹,

Cerge-Ei²

2020

RJMF

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In this paper, we perform a microeconomic analysis of positive and negative imbalances in the maturity structure of Russian banks' transactions. In particular, using Heckman selection models at the cross-section of Russian banks, we test the ability of such imbalances to predict the probability of the detection of banks' negative net worth and its expected magnitude in advance (three months before negative worth detection). The estimation results show that, first, certain indicators of imbalances do offer 'value added' in predicting 'holes' in banks' capital: taking into account these imbalances in banks' short-and medium-term transactions with households and shortterm transactions with enterprises improves the quality of out-ofsample forecasts. Second, the very division into positive and negative imbalances makes sense: the effects are in many cases found to be opposite with respect to the size and likelihood of negative net worth detection at banks. Third, a separate analysis of banking transactions with households and those with businesses is also of great importance: the effect of imbalances in transactions similar in maturity structure but with different types of economic agents is in many cases opposite in sign. The results may be useful for the Bank of Russia in identifying potentially fragile banks as part of its prudential policy.

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 81%

Maturity Structure of Banking Transactions and Its Role in Predicting Negative Net Worth of Banks

Mikhail¹,

Cerge-Ei²

2020

RJMF

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“…In order to assess the level and degree of influence of imbalances, we applied the best practices and methods presented by m. Mamov in a series of articles devoted to the study of holes in the capital of banks in the context of their activities for 5-10 years, during the period of active revocation of licenses of credit institutions, which presumably ended in 2019. The main methodology is the method used by M. Mamonov -this is the Hecnman's model, which was introduced in 1979 [5]. Such models may differ from standard comparison models in that they can adjust the initial coefficients for both active operations and for the main operations that make up the bank's liability balance sheet.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Imbalances in the Capital of Credit Institutions as a Source of Instability in the Economy and in the Market of Loans Issued to Subjects of the Real Sector of the Economy

2021

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In the present paper, the study of imbalances in the capital structure of some Russian banks is carried out. The very imbalances in the structure of commercial banks have a significant impact on the dynamics of the entire banking and loan market in the country. And in particular, the dynamics of the development of the agricultural sector. The study of the uneven structure of the balance sheets of commercial banks allowed us to draw conclusions. First, the uneven balance of the bank can be expressed both in a positive and negative plane, depending on the size of the capital imbalance, it can be concluded that the size of the imbalance is naturally dependent and the effect of influence on the dynamics of the formation of reserves for the loan portfolio. Second, analysis of various operations of commercial banks, in particular the analysis of banking operations, transactions of a credit institution and other transactions allows us to divide the services of the Bank for various type of clients from significant to insignificant to have an impact on possible alleged imbalance in the Bank, which can affect the imbalance in the lending industry for the real sector of the economy, particularly the imbalances in lending to agribusiness. The cumulative growth of these imbalances in several banks can lead to an unstable situation in the loan market. The fight against possible imbalances in the capital of banks can lead to an increase in the stability of the loan market and the stability of the entire economic system as a whole. This will stabilize the market of loans to the real sector of the economy and the market of loans issued within the framework of the agro-industrial complex.

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<p>Impact of Intraregional Income Inequality on the Operation of the Bank of Russia’s Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism</p>

Zvereva,

Demidova,

Korshunov

et al. 2024

SSRN Journal

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Lending Channel of Monetary Policy in Russia: Microeconomic Estimates for Retail and Corporative Segments of Credit Market

Abstract: Кредитный канал монетарной политики в России...

Cited by 5 publications

References 0 publications

Maturity Structure of Banking Transactions and Its Role in Predicting Negative Net Worth of Banks

Maturity Structure of Banking Transactions and Its Role in Predicting Negative Net Worth of Banks

Imbalances in the Capital of Credit Institutions as a Source of Instability in the Economy and in the Market of Loans Issued to Subjects of the Real Sector of the Economy

<p>Impact of Intraregional Income Inequality on the Operation of the Bank of Russia’s Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism</p>

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