Lethal yellowing disease: insights from predicting potential distribution under different climate change scenarios

Aidoo, Owusu Fordjour; Cunze, Sarah; Guimapi, Ritter A.; Arhin, Linda; Ablormeti, Fred Kormla; Tettey, Elizabeth; Dampare, Frank; Afram, Yayra; Bonsu, Osei; Obeng, Joshua; Lutuf, Hanif; Dickinson, Matthew; Yankey, Ndede

doi:10.1007/s41348-021-00488-1

Cited by 14 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…These environmental modifications often lead to changes in global ecosystems, like rising sea levels and reducing suitable areas for crop production and pest outbreaks 3 , 4 . In response, several studies have assessed climate change impacts on pests and diseases of many crops 5 – 9 . The findings from such studies provide a theoretical basis for determining species' habitats and generating information that can guide management decisions 10 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tamarixia radiata global distribution to current and future climate using the climate change experiment (CLIMEX) model

Souza

Aidoo²,

Farnezi

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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The phloem-limited bacteria, “Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus” and “Ca. L. americanus”, are the causal pathogens responsible for Huanglongbing (HLB). The Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae) is the principal vector of these “Ca. Liberibacter” species. Though Tamarixia radiata Waterston (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) has been useful in biological control programmes against D. citri, information on its global distribution remains vague. Using the Climate Change Experiment (CLIMEX) model, the potential global distribution of T. radiata under the 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s for Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B and A2 was defined globally. The results showed that habitat suitability for T. radiata covered Africa, Asia, Europe, Oceania, and the Americas. The model predicted climate suitable areas for T. radiata beyond its presently known native and non-native areas. The new locations predicted to have habitat suitability for T. radiata included parts of Europe and Oceania. Under the different climate change scenarios, the model predicted contraction of high habitat suitability (EI > 30) for T. radiata from the 2050s to the 2090s. Nevertheless, the distribution maps created using the CLIMEX model may be helpful in the search for and release of T. radiata in new regions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tamarixia radiata global distribution to current and future climate using the climate change experiment (CLIMEX) model

Souza

Aidoo²,

Farnezi

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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“…In particular, over about the past 10 years, correlative (e.g., MaxEnt, BIOCLIM) and semicorrelative (e.g., CLIMEX) rather than purely mechanistic (process‐based) modelling approaches have been used to simulate risks based on future suitable area of crop pathogens/diseases (three examples are shown in Table 4). For example, a result of MaxEnt projections can be that the distribution/occurrence of a crop disease was most strongly influenced by the minimum temperature of the coldest month (88.4%), the strongest predictor variable for lethal yellowing disease of coconut (Table 1; see Aidoo et al, 2021). According to Backhouse (2014), it might be wise to conduct sequential modelling studies that build upon each other, inform each other, and consequently complement each other.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Summary of the worldwide available crop disease risk simulation studies that were driven by climate change scenarios and published during the past 20 years

Juroszek¹,

Bartsch²,

Fontaine³

et al. 2022

Plant Pathology

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Here, published crop disease risk simulations are summarized, which were driven by climate change scenarios on a timescale terminating between 2001 and 2100. Thirty different agricultural and horticultural crops were specifically considered. Wheat diseases (mainly leaf rust) were most often simulated, followed by rice diseases (mainly leaf blast), grapevine diseases (mainly downy mildew) and potato diseases (mainly late blight). Most simulations suggest that within the projection period simulated, crop disease risk will more often increase (86 simulations) than decrease (45 simulations) or remain similar (12 simulations). The majority of crop disease risk simulations focus on Europe and Brazil. For example, there is agreement across crop disease risk simulations that in Europe the risk of leaf rust of wheat will increase. In other cases, there is disagreement across crop disease risk simulations, for example, due to contemporary climatic differences of locations. Therefore, it is risky to extrapolate results across locations. Mitigation and adaptation methods should be more often integrated in the crop disease risk simulations in order to inform about potential methods to reduce disease risk in future.

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“…However, these biotic and abiotic factors are involved in the ability of a pest to establish in a new geographical area. Among them, competitors, the ability to survive in the absence of hosts, and phenotypic plasticity are considered important influencers of the establishment of species outside their native range (Lee and Lee, 2006;Aidoo et al, 2021). Thirdly, local policies, such as the inspection of plants, plant parts, farm machinery, and plant by-products at entry ports, can affect the establishment of this species outside of its natural range (McNeely, 2000;Pyšek et al, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Climate Change on Potential Invasion Risk of Oryctes monoceros Worldwide

Aidoo¹,

Hao

Ding

et al. 2022

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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As a significant threat to agriculture, pests have caused a great disservice to crop production and food security. Understanding the mechanisms of pests’ outbreaks and invasion is critical in giving sound suggestions on their control and prevention strategies. The African rhinoceros beetle, Oryctes monoceros (Olivier), as the most damaging pest of palms, banana, sugarcane, and pineapple, severely threatens their production due to its ability to kill both young and matured hosts. Analyzing the effect of climate change on major parameters of O. monoceros life history has been an important issue recently, given its sensitivity to thermal conditions. However, information on how climate change alters geographical distribution of O. monoceros is poorly understood. By combining environmental variables and occurrence records, we were able to assess environmental risk factors for O. monoceros and create risk maps for the pest using the Boosted Regression Tree model. Our results significance of environmental variables showed that the annual temperature variation (39.45%), seasonality of temperature (23.00%), the isothermality (18.76%), precipitation of the hottest quarter months (6.07%), average variation of day time temperature (3.27%), were relatively important environmental factors that affected the distribution O. monoceros. We also found that the projected potential distributions of the pest’s habitats in all future global warming scenarios exceeded its present known distribution. The model predicts that habitat suitability for O. monoceros is predominantly concentrated along Africa’s west and east coastlines, Asia’s south coasts, South America’s north and east coasts, and a few locations spread over North America’s southern coasts and coastal regions. These outputs provide a solid theoretical foundation for O. monoceros risk evaluations and control.

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Lethal yellowing disease: insights from predicting potential distribution under different climate change scenarios

Cited by 14 publications

References 53 publications

Tamarixia radiata global distribution to current and future climate using the climate change experiment (CLIMEX) model

Tamarixia radiata global distribution to current and future climate using the climate change experiment (CLIMEX) model

Summary of the worldwide available crop disease risk simulation studies that were driven by climate change scenarios and published during the past 20 years

The Impact of Climate Change on Potential Invasion Risk of Oryctes monoceros Worldwide

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