Life cycle assessment of emerging technologies: Evaluation techniques at different stages of market and technical maturity

Abstract

Life cycle assessment (LCA) analysts are increasingly being asked to conduct life cycle-based systems level analysis at the earliest stages of technology development. While early assessments provide the greatest opportunity to influence design and ultimately environmental performance, it is the stage with the least available data, greatest uncertainty, and a paucity of analytic tools for addressing these challenges. While the fundamental approach to conducting an LCA of emerging technologies is akin to that of LCA of existing technologies, emerging technologies pose additional challenges. In this paper, we present a broad set of market and technology characteristics that typically influence an LCA of emerging technologies and identify questions that researchers must address to account for the most important aspects of the systems they are studying. The paper presents: (a) guidance to identify the specific technology characteristics and dynamic market context that are most relevant and unique to a particular study, (b) an overview of the challenges faced by early stage assessments that are unique because of these conditions, (c) questions that researchers should ask themselves for such a study to be conducted, and (d) illustrative examples from the transportation sector to demonstrate the factors to consider when conducting LCAs of emerging technologies. The paper is intended to be used as an organizing platform to synthesize existing methods, procedures and insights and guide researchers, analysts and technology developer to better recognize key study design elements and to manage expectations of study outcomes. K E Y W O R D Searly stage technology assessment, environmental impacts, industrial ecology, life cycle assessment (LCA), research and development (R&D), unintended consequences

Bringing a life cycle perspective to emerging technology development

“…The introductory paper titled “Life cycle assessment of emerging technologies: Evaluation techniques at different stages of market and technical maturity” (Bergerson et al., ) provides some initial discussion of the critically important research questions and some guidance on how to structure an analysis based on the characteristics of the technology and market of interest. The paper is intended to: (a) move the research community from a set of ad hoc processes to organizing and synthesizing existing methods, procedures, and insights, (b) aid LCA researchers/analysts in characterizing emerging technologies, identifying critical uncertainties that these technologies face, and providing guidance on overcoming common challenges that arise in their analysis, and (c) guide LCA researchers/analysts and technology developers to better understand key study design elements and to manage expectations of study outcomes.…”

“…This is despite wide recognition that the greatest potential to steer technology toward environmentally preferable outcomes exists at the earliest stages of technology development. The challenge is that this stage also coincides with the least available data, greatest uncertainty, and a paucity of analytic tools for addressing these challenges (Bergerson et al., ). While there has been some discussion of methods related to the assessment of emerging technologies, most studies to date are case studies related to specific technology applications, conditions, and regional settings.…”

“…While there has been some discussion of methods related to the assessment of emerging technologies, most studies to date are case studies related to specific technology applications, conditions, and regional settings. The spectrum of emerging technologies ranges from products or processes that are innovative and potentially disruptive, to the next generation of commercial products incorporating marginal changes to an incumbent technology (Bergerson et al., ). The challenges and opportunities across this spectrum require further discussion within the research community to address questions such as: When is it useful to conduct an LCA and what questions can it reasonably answer at different stages of development and commercialization? What aspects of the technology/adoption context need the most careful consideration? With what other tools or techniques can/should the LCA be coupled? …”

“…The procedures and tools employed to assess emerging technologies still tend to be applied on an ad hoc basis, with no clear guidelines as to what methods are available, applicable, or appropriate. While some authors review and provide recommendations based on specific cases, there is a need for additional cross‐case analysis to provide more generalized guidance (Bergerson et al., ).…”

“…Terms such as prospective, ex ante, early stage, anticipatory, explorative, and scenario‐based LCA are often used interchangeably and can be interpreted differently by different research groups. We do not attempt to reconcile these inconsistencies in the special issue but consider this one example of the need for clearer definitions and differentiation between approaches (Bergerson et al., ).…”