Limitations of an optimum sustainable population or potential biological removal approach for conserving marine mammals: Pacific walrus case study

Robards, Martin D.; Burns, J. J.; Meek, Chanda L.; Watson, Annette

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2009.08.016

Cited by 24 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…() examined human–marine mammal interactions, with a focus on subsistence harvest, and Metcalf and Robards () and Robards et al. () examined human–Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens ) interactions specifically. All these assessments noted a lack of baseline as well as current data for many marine species, ecosystems, and processes that would be useful in assessing climate change effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pacific Walrus and climate change: observations and predictions

MacCracken

2012

Ecology and Evolution

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The extent and duration of sea-ice habitats used by Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) are diminishing resulting in altered walrus behavior, mortality, and distribution. I document changes that have occurred over the past several decades and make predictions to the end of the 21st century. Climate models project that sea ice will monotonically decline resulting in more ice-free summers of longer duration. Several stressors that may impact walruses are directly influenced by sea ice. How these stressors materialize were modeled as most likely-case, worst-case, and best-case scenarios for the mid- and late-21st century, resulting in four comprehensive working hypotheses that can help identify and prioritize management and research projects, identify comprehensive mitigation actions, and guide monitoring programs to track future developments and adjust programs as needed. In the short term, the most plausible hypotheses predict a continuing northward shift in walrus distribution, increasing use of coastal haulouts in summer and fall, and a population reduction set by the carrying capacity of the near shore environment and subsistence hunting. Alternatively, under worst-case conditions, the population will decline to a level where the probability of extinction is high. In the long term, walrus may seasonally abandon the Bering and Chukchi Seas for sea-ice refugia to the northwest and northeast, ocean warming and pH decline alter walrus food resources, and subsistence hunting exacerbates a large population decline. However, conditions that reverse current trends in sea ice loss cannot be ruled out. Which hypothesis comes to fruition depends on how the stressors develop and the success of mitigation measures. Best-case scenarios indicate that successful mitigation of unsustainable harvests and terrestrial haulout-related mortalities can be effective. Management and research should focus on monitoring, elucidating effects, and mitigation, while ultimately, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to reduce sea-ice habitat losses.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pacific Walrus and climate change: observations and predictions

MacCracken

2012

Ecology and Evolution

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“…In many places warming has increased the frequency of winter rains and thaws, creating icing conditions that contribute to declining herd sizes of caribou and reindeer (Meltofte, 2013). Sea-ice decline has markedly reduced carrying capacity for ice-associated mammals Moore and Huntington, 2008;Robards et al, 2009). The thinning of sea ice and river ice has made travel less safe for indigenous hunters (Schneider et al, 2013).…”

Section: The Changing Earthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ecosystem stewardship: A resilience framework for arctic conservation

Chapin

Sommerkorn²,

Robards

et al. 2015

Global Environmental Change

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“…Ice forecasting at these timescales has been identified as a high priority in the context of safe maritime operations (Richter-Menge and Walsh, 2012;Kurtz et al, 2013a;Eicken, 2013), management of marine living resources (Robards et al, 2013) and food security for indigenous communities (Brubaker et al, 2011). Here, we focus on the first two issues in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas north of Alaska (Figs.…”

Section: Target Quantitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the utility of quantitative network design in evaluating Arctic sea ice thickness sampling strategies

Kaminski

Kauker²,

Eicken

et al. 2015

The Cryosphere

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Abstract. We present a quantitative network design (QND) study of the Arctic sea ice-ocean system using a software tool that can evaluate hypothetical observational networks in a variational data assimilation system. For a demonstration, we evaluate two idealised flight transects derived from NASA's Operation IceBridge airborne ice surveys in terms of their potential to improve 10-day to 5-month sea ice forecasts. As target regions for the forecasts we select the Chukchi Sea, an area particularly relevant for maritime traffic and offshore resource exploration, as well as two areas related to the Barnett ice severity index (BSI), a standard measure of shipping conditions along the Alaskan coast that is routinely issued by ice services. Our analysis quantifies the benefits of sampling upstream of the target area and of reducing the sampling uncertainty. We demonstrate how observations of sea ice and snow thickness can constrain ice and snow variables in a target region and quantify the complementarity of combining two flight transects. We further quantify the benefit of improved atmospheric forecasts and a well-calibrated model.

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Limitations of an optimum sustainable population or potential biological removal approach for conserving marine mammals: Pacific walrus case study

Cited by 24 publications

References 63 publications

Pacific Walrus and climate change: observations and predictions

Pacific Walrus and climate change: observations and predictions

Ecosystem stewardship: A resilience framework for arctic conservation

Exploring the utility of quantitative network design in evaluating Arctic sea ice thickness sampling strategies

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