Limited spatial rescue potential for coral reefs lost to future climate warming

Greiner, Ariel; Andrello, Marco; Darling, Emily S.; Krkošek, Martin; Fortin, Marie‐Josée

doi:10.1111/geb.13571

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Coral metapopulations in the former model required the existence of both migration and selection to avoid coral collapse, and corals in the latter model required at least some genetic variance (Figure 4). Similar nonevolutionary models reinforce the conclusion that naturally cooler reefs (often called climate refugia) alone are not sufficient for coral persistence, suggesting that reef refugia will be unable to produce sufficient coral larvae to reseed even half of present-day reef areas (86). Strong selection for heat-tolerant corals and the loss of more sensitive corals are also expected to drive reductions in genetic diversity (228).…”

Section: The Evolutionary Future For Coral Reef Taxamentioning

confidence: 57%

Coral Reef Population Genomics in an Age of Global Change

2023

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Coral reefs are both exceptionally biodiverse and threatened by climate change and other human activities. Here, we review population genomic processes in coral reef taxa and their importance for understanding responses to global change. Many taxa on coral reefs are characterized by weak genetic drift, extensive gene flow, and strong selection from complex biotic and abiotic environments, which together present a fascinating test of microevolutionary theory. Selection, gene flow, and hybridization have played and will continue to play an important role in the adaptation or extinction of coral reef taxa in the face of rapid environmental change, but research remains exceptionally limited compared to the urgent needs. Critical areas for future investigation include understanding evolutionary potential and the mechanisms of local adaptation, developing historical baselines, and building greater research capacity in the countries where most reef diversity is concentrated. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Genetics, Volume 57 is November 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

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Section: The Evolutionary Future For Coral Reef Taxamentioning

confidence: 57%

Coral Reef Population Genomics in an Age of Global Change

2023

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“…There is, however, little empirical evidence as to how these areas can best be located in order to support biodiversity and ecological processes. On a global scale, connectivity (applying a Lagrangian approach) has been used to identify coral spawning sites critical to protect in efforts to maximize the resilience of coral reefs to climate warming 30 . In that case, the location and behavior of the particles (coral spawn) introduced to the water column is known and bounded in space.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phytoplankton diversity explained by connectivity across a mesoscale frontal system in the open ocean

Bendtsen¹,

Sørensen²,

Daugbjerg³

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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Phytoplankton community composition is important in establishing ecosystem structure and function. Intuitively, we recognize that water movements must be important for modifying spatial gradients and plankton diversity. However, identifying boundaries and exchange between habitats in the open ocean is not straightforward. Here, we use the abundance of nine phytoplankton species closely sampled in a mesoscale frontal system in the northeastern North Sea as a proxy for community composition and explore the relationship between phytoplankton biogeography and transport patterns. Subsurface community distributions could be related to modeled patterns in water movement. A methodology for analyzing pelagic diversity that includes a representation of plankton community composition and an Eulerian connectivity tracer was developed, and the relative importance of connectivity and geographical distance for phytoplankton species composition analyzed. The connectivity tracer identifies timescales and dispersal barriers in the open ocean. Connectivity was found to be superior in explaining pelagic plankton diversity and found to be a prerequisite for understanding the pelagic phytoplankton composition. This approach is a valuable tool for establishing the link between ocean transports, ecosystem structure and biodiversity and for informing the placement of marine protected areas.

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“…As such, we recommend improving our understanding of coral reproduction and recruitment dynamics along latitudinal gradients (e.g., Mizerek et al, 2021), as it can provide an insight into how reef populations persist and recover despite suboptimal conditions. In addition to understanding larval dispersal and ensuring population connectivity (Greiner et al, 2022), there is a continual need to explore other mechanisms that facilitate rapid reef recovery. For example, Doropoulos et al (2022) hypothesised that coral cryptic seed banks play an important role in reef recovery after cyclone disturbances.…”

Section: Discussion (1235)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…g ., Mizerek et al ., 2021), as it can provide an insight into how reef populations persist and recover despite suboptimal conditions. In addition to understanding larval dispersal and ensuring population connectivity (Greiner et al ., 2022), there is a continual need to explore other mechanisms that facilitate rapid reef recovery. For example, Doropoulos et al .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-latitude marginal reefs support fewer but bigger corals than their tropical counterparts

Chong

Sommer

Stant

et al. 2022

Preprint

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AimDespite the awareness that climate change impacts are typically detrimental to tropical coral reefs, the effect of increasing environmental stress and variability on the population size structure of coral species remains poorly understood. This gap in knowledge limits our ability to effectively conserve coral reef ecosystems because size specific dynamics are rarely incorporated. Our aim is to quantify variation in the size structure of coral populations along a tropical-to-subtropical environmental gradient.Location20 coral populations along a latitudinal gradient on the east coast of Australia (∼23°S to 30°S).Time PeriodBetween 2010 and 2018.Major taxa studiedScleractinian corals.MethodsWe apply two methods to quantify the relationship between environmental covariates and coral population size structure along a latitudinal environmental gradient. First, we use linear regression with summary statistics, such as median size as response variables; a method frequently favoured by ecologists. The second method is compositional functional regression, a novel method using entire size-frequency distributions as response variables. We then predict coral population size structure with increasing environmental stress and variability.ResultsCompared to tropical reefs, we find fewer but larger coral colonies in marginal reefs, where environmental conditions are more variable and stressful for corals in the former. Our model predicts that coral populations may become gradually dominated by larger colonies (> 148 cm2) with increasing environmental stress.Main conclusionsWith increasing environmental stress and variability, we can expect shifts in coral population size structure towards more larger colonies. Fewer but bigger corals suggest low survival, slow growth, and poor recruitment. This finding is concerning for the future of coral reefs as it implies populations may have low recovery potential from disturbances. We highlight the importance and usefulness of continuously monitoring changes to population structure over large spatial scales.Data availabilityData is supplied in the supplementary information, or upon request. Once accepted for publication it will be made openly available on Dryad.

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Limited spatial rescue potential for coral reefs lost to future climate warming

Cited by 4 publications

References 59 publications

Coral Reef Population Genomics in an Age of Global Change

Coral Reef Population Genomics in an Age of Global Change

Phytoplankton diversity explained by connectivity across a mesoscale frontal system in the open ocean

High-latitude marginal reefs support fewer but bigger corals than their tropical counterparts

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