Linking global circulation model synoptics and precipitation for western North America

Lapp, Suzan; Byrne, J. M.; Kienzle, S. W.; Townshend, Ivan

doi:10.1002/joc.851

Cited by 24 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…Snow accumulated in the prairies can also be of significance for soil moisture budgeting and occasional aggravation of flood events. Due to projected water shortages in south-western Alberta (Byrne et al, 1999;Lapp et al, 2002Lapp et al, , 2005Rood et al, 2005) and the subsequent need for reliable hydrological models to predict future scenarios, it is essential to model the incoming snow volumes and their seasonal behaviour realistically.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new temperature based method to separate rain and snow

Kienzle

2008

Hydrological Processes

151

143

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Abstract:This paper presents the development and testing of a new method to estimate daily snowfall from precipitation and associated temperature records. The new method requires two variables; the threshold mean daily air temperature at which 50% of precipitation is considered snow, and the temperature range within which mixed precipitation can occur. Sensitivity analyses using 15 climate stations across south-western Alberta, Canada, and ranging from prairie to alpine regions investigates the sensitivity of those two variables on mean annual snowfall (MAS), the coefficient of determination, and the MAS-weighted coefficient of determination. Existing methods, including the static threshold method, one linear transition method used by Quick and Pipes, and the Leavesley method employed in the PRMS hydrological modelling system are compared with the new method, using a total of 963 years of daily data from the 15 climate stations used for the sensitivity analyses. Four different approaches to using the two input variables (threshold temperature and range) were tested and statistically compared: mean annual variables based on the 15 stations, mean annual variables for each station, mean monthly variables for each station, and a sine curve representing seasonal variation of the variables. In almost all cases the proposed new method resulted in higher MAS-weighted coefficients of determination, and, on average, they were significantly different from those of other methods. The paper concludes with a decision tree to help decide which method and approach to apply under a variety of data availabilities.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new temperature based method to separate rain and snow

Kienzle

2008

Hydrological Processes

151

143

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“…They predicted an 18% snowpack volume decrease in a representative watershed of the Montana-Alberta Rocky Mountain region within the next century. Lapp et al (2002; downscaled GCM data for use in a high resolution mountain snow accumulation and ablation model and projected a 38% reduction in snowpack volume for a mountain watershed (1445 km 2 area) in the southern Alberta Rockies by 2020-2050. Increasing precipitation is a source of potential snow water equivalent (SWE), but increasing temperature outweighed this effect, so that SWE was projected to decline.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Spring Runoff for the Rocky Mountains of Montana and Alberta II: Runoff Change Projections using Future Scenarios

Larson¹,

Byrne²,

Johnson³

et al. 2011

Canadian Water Resources Journal

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Abstract:In Part I of this two-part study, the Simulated Grid microclimate model (SIMGRID) was modified and the new version validated on the St. Mary River watershed in northern Montana, using historical data. In Part II, future climate change scenarios are used to estimate spring streamflow (Q S ) for the 1961-2099 period. Relative to the base period , the model indicates median year Q S decline of 3 -8% by the 2020s, 8 -17% by the 2050s, and 15 -27% by the 2080s. Mean onset of the spring pulse is projected to occur in early March or late February for the 2080s, 36 to 50 days earlier than for the 1961-1990 reference period. Model results generally indicate increased precipitation, but spring runoff volumes will decrease substantially, because the higher rain:snow ratio and shorter accumulation period will decrease snowpack volume. Overall, the results of this study indicate that the increased winter temperature resulting from anthropogenically-induced climate change, will result in shorter winters, reduced snowpack volume, and earlier spring snowmelt and runoff onset, resulting in substantial reductions in spring discharge.Résumé: Dans la Partie I de la présente étude en deux parties, le modèle de microclimats alpin « SIMGRID » a été modifié et la nouvelle version a été validée sur le bassin versant de la rivière St. Mary dans le nord du Montana, en utilisant des données historiques. Dans la Partie II, les scénarios de changements climatiques futurs ont été utilisés pour estimer l'écoulement fluvial au printemps (Q S ) pour la période de 1961 à 2099. Par rapport à la période de base , le modèle indique une diminution de la médiane de Q S de 3 à 8 % d'ici les années 2020, de 8 à 17 % d'ici les années 2050 et de 15 à 27 % d'ici les années 2080. En moyenne, le début de l'écoulement de printemps est prévu pour fin février ou début mars au cours des années 2080, c'est-à-dire de 36 à 50 jours plus tôt que pendant la période de référence . Malgré une prévision d'augmentation des précipitations, les modèles indiquent également une diminution considérable du volume d'écoulement printanier causé par une hausse du ratio pluie/ neige et par la diminution de la période d'accumulation entrainant la diminution du volume du manteau

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“…Climate models do not currently resolve local-and regional-scale climatologies of alpine regions with great confidence, but large-scale flow indices are more consistent and reliable in atmospheric models (Lapp et al, 2002;Shea, 2004). The successful application of atmospheric flow indices would eliminate the need for downscaling climate variables and provide a direct physical link between large-scale atmospheric flow and local accumulation and ablation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Atmospheric flow indices, regional climate, and Glacier mass balance in the Canadian Rocky mountains

Shea

Marshall

2006

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Abstract:Glacier mass balance is governed by cumulative temperature and precipitation patterns in a region, making it a sensitive indicator of climate variability and trends. Many studies have drawn the link between local meteorological conditions and glacier mass balance, but these statistical relationships are difficult to extrapolate to other sites or to apply in sensitivity studies of future climate change. In this paper, we explore the ability to predict regional climate anomalies and glacier mass balance in the Canadian Rockies on the basis of 500-mb circulation indices derived from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset. Daily precipitation amounts and variance-weighted seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies at a suite of six long-term meteorological stations in the Canadian Rockies (1953Rockies ( -2002) demonstrate a coherent dependence on the daily and mean seasonal atmospheric flow indices. The Peyto Glacier, Alberta, Canada offers the best available mass balance time-series in the Canadian Rockies (1966Rockies ( -2004. Regression models for Peyto Glacier winter, summer, and annual mass balance variability were constructed from (1) Jasper climate anomalies, (2) regional climate anomalies, and (3) atmospheric flow indices. Model performance was examined in terms of the multiple coefficient of determination and of the variables retained in the stepwise regression analysis. Flow indices were the stronger predictors of mass balance. This offers important advantages for mass balance forecasts, because large-scale circulation patterns are better captured than surface weather in mountain regions, in both reanalysed climatology and model-generated climate change scenarios.

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Linking global circulation model synoptics and precipitation for western North America

Cited by 24 publications

References 28 publications

A new temperature based method to separate rain and snow

A new temperature based method to separate rain and snow

Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Spring Runoff for the Rocky Mountains of Montana and Alberta II: Runoff Change Projections using Future Scenarios

Atmospheric flow indices, regional climate, and Glacier mass balance in the Canadian Rocky mountains

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