Linking stakeholders and modellers in scenario studies: The use of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as a communication and learning tool

Vliet, M. van; Kok, Kasper; Veldkamp, A.

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2009.08.005

Cited by 246 publications

(154 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Involving local communities in disaster risk reduction techniques can surely enhance their collective capacity to cope with climatic extremes (Wilhite 2002). Participatory modelling using fuzzy cognitive maps are increasingly being used in planning and decision-making (Vliet et al 2009;Lopolito et al 2011;An 2012;Jetter and Kok 2014). Understanding people's perception about the impact of drought on their livelihood assets gives a clear vision of the most impacted sectors and aids planning adaptation with regard to developing drought resilient livelihoods.…”

Section: Need Of Participatory Modelling-based Drought Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main advantages that FCMs have over other tools like structural equation modelling, (SEM), systems dynamics model, and causal loop diagrams are: (i) their participatory nature that allow them to utilize the perception of stakeholders (Vliet et al 2009;Diniz et al 2015); (ii) they can model complex systems with many concepts-even those dealing with uncertainty (Kosko 1986;Özesmi and Özesmi 2004); (iii) they are not driven by data unavailability (Kok 2009;Özesmi and Özesmi 2004) but generate data on the other hand; (iv) they highlight and reveal the role of hidden and important feedbacks in the system (Kok 2009;Özesmi and Özesmi 2004); (v) they can easily integrate data from multiple sources and can divulge several diverging viewpoints (for example, they can use expert opinion as well as indigenous knowledge (Özesmi and Özesmi 2004)); and (vi) enable multiple policy simulations (Kok 2009;Özesmi and Özesmi 2004).…”

Section: Why Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping Approach?mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Pathways for drought resilient livelihoods based on people’s perception

Singh

Chudasama

2016

Climatic Change

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Drought is among the most dreaded threats as far as natural disasters are concerned wielding, as it does, a significant impact on ecosystems, people's livelihoods, and the socioeconomic development of a country. A significantly large geographic area of India happens to be drought prone. In order to understand people's response to the impacts of drought and their coping strategies, it is crucial to understand their perceptions. Studies investigating community perceptions relevant to drought impacts and concomitant adaptive behaviours are rare in India. This paper documents communities' perceptions of impacts of drought on their livelihood assets and adaptation practices. It does this with the help of the fuzzy cognitive mapping approach in the Mahabubnagar district of India's Telangana state. In order to develop pathways for drought resilient livelihoods we ran simulations for future drought scenarios with various bundles of adaptation strategies enabling us to evaluate their effectiveness in providing resilience against drought. The study also tested the suitability of various activation rules and transformation functions, used for running simulations. Incorporating stakeholders' perceptions, knowledge and beliefs about impacts of droughts, and engaging them in the process of developing drought resilient livelihoods is expected to fine-tune the drought related policy-making.

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Section: Need Of Participatory Modelling-based Drought Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Why Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping Approach?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Pathways for drought resilient livelihoods based on people’s perception

Singh

Chudasama

2016

Climatic Change

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“…Other tools for capturing stakeholder perspectives on systems, such as fuzzy cognitive maps (Kok, 2009;van Vliet et al, 2010) and other participatory modeling tools (Voinov & Bousquet, 2010), do allow for a systems description that includes semiquantification of relationships and feedbacks among system elements. These models, in turn, have no specific focus on system levels and scales.…”

Section: Potential Improvementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Visualizing Stakeholder Perspectives for Reflection and Dialogue on Scale Dynamics in Social–Ecological Systems

Vervoort¹,

Hoogstra²,

Kok³

et al. 2014

HER

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“…Thus, a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is a cognitive map where relationships among the elements derive from a given mental map, with their relative importance representing the magnitude of the causality of such elements. In this context, a FCM can play an important role in building semi-quantitative scenarios taking into account different stakeholders' perceptions (Kok 2009;Vliet, Kok, and Veldkamp 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Application of FCMs to land use science requires the interpretation of subjective information, for example, stakeholders' perceptions or expert knowledge, into semi-quantitative description of variables and their interrelations (Ozesmi, U. and Ozesmi, S. 2003;Kok 2009;Vliet et al 2010). Although the semi-quantitative nature of FCMs is considered a weak point when linking them to quantitative models, the dynamic outputs of FCMs in scenario development can facilitate land use/land cover models by unveiling hidden feedback mechanisms as shown by Kok (2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using fuzzy cognitive maps to describe current system dynamics and develop land cover scenarios: a case study in the Brazilian Amazon

Soler

Kok

Câmara

et al. 2012

Journal of Land Use Science

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In this study we developed a methodology to identify and quantify the relationships among determinants of land cover change using a regional case study in the Brazilian Amazon. The method is based on the application of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs), a semi-quantitative tool that provides a structured assessment of key feedbacks in scenario analysis. Novel to the application of FCMs is the use of spatial data-sets as the main input to build a cognitive map. Identification of interactions between land cover determinants and strengths is based on an empirical analysis of spatially explicit data and literature review. Expert knowledge is adopted to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the method. Potential pitfalls, such as spatial autocorrelation and scale issues, identified are intrinsic to the empirical data analysis. The outputs of the resulting FCMs are compared to the outputs of spatially explicit models under similar scenarios of change. The proposed method is said to be robust and reproducible when compared with participatory approaches, and it can endorse the consistency between demand and allocation in scenario analysis to be used in spatially explicit models.

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Linking stakeholders and modellers in scenario studies: The use of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps as a communication and learning tool

Cited by 246 publications

References 25 publications

Pathways for drought resilient livelihoods based on people’s perception

Pathways for drought resilient livelihoods based on people’s perception

Visualizing Stakeholder Perspectives for Reflection and Dialogue on Scale Dynamics in Social–Ecological Systems

Using fuzzy cognitive maps to describe current system dynamics and develop land cover scenarios: a case study in the Brazilian Amazon

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