Listening to Stakeholders: Initiating Research on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Heavy Precipitation Events in the Contiguous United States by First Understanding What Stakeholders Need

Abstract

Heavy precipitation events and their associated flooding can have major impacts on communities and stakeholders. There is a lack of knowledge, however, about how stakeholders make decisions at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales (i.e., two weeks to three months). To understand how decisions are made and S2S predictions are or can be used, the project team for “Prediction of Rainfall Extremes at Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Periods” (PRES2iP) conducted a two-day workshop in Norman, Oklahoma, during July 2018. The workshop engaged 21 professionals from environmental management and public safety communities across the contiguous United States in activities to understand their needs for S2S predictions of potential extended heavy precipitation events. Discussions and role-playing activities aimed to identify how workshop participants manage uncertainty and define extreme precipitation, the timescales over which they make key decisions, and the types of products they use currently. This collaboration with stakeholders has been an integral part of PRES2iP research and has aimed to foster actionable science. The PRES2iP team is using the information produced from this workshop to inform the development of predictive models for extended heavy precipitation events and to collaboratively design new forecast products with our stakeholders, empowering them to make more-informed decisions about potential extreme precipitation events.

Subseasonal Predictability of the July 2021 Extreme Rainfall Event Over Henan China in S2S Operational Models

“…The S2S prediction project releases operational forecasts and reforecasts, with particular emphasis on high‐impact weather events (Vitart et al., 2017), which provide a valuable tool for risk management and communication with policy‐makers and other stakeholders (Macleod et al., 2021; VanBuskirk et al., 2021). Assessing the predictability of extreme rainfall events can demonstrate the potential benefits of S2S model forecasts (Merryfield et al., 2020).…”

“…policy-makers and other stakeholders (Macleod et al, 2021;VanBuskirk et al, 2021). Assessing the predictability of extreme rainfall events can demonstrate the potential benefits of S2S model forecasts (Merryfield et al, 2020).…”

Listening to Stakeholders II: Adapting Research Products on Subseasonal to Seasonal Heavy Precipitation Events by Exploring Options with Users

“…This engagement has been critical to the PRES 2 iP research team members, who are all geophysical or social scientists, because common ways for the researchers to present data (e.g., using percentiles) were clearly difficult for many practitioners to apply to their operations. As a result, the project team changed the early design of their research to address the issues raised in the 2018 workshop (VanBuskirk et al 2021). Then, a second workshop was held in 2021 to seek clarity on how PRES 2 iP research activities and results could best be translated into educational or operational products.…”