Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

Abstract

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

Reduction in baseline corticosterone secretion correlates with climate warming and drying across wild lizard populations

“…We used the relative changes in abundance to determine the IUCN status of each population, and we identified two populations extremely at risk, one population at risk and 11 nonthreatened populations (Supporting Information Table S1). This classification is consistent with the predictive model of climate change effect on population trends derived from a previous field experiment (Bestion et al., ). We managed to sample 135 individuals from those populations in a critical state, and it is worth noting that studies including as many individuals from collapsing populations are rare and urgently needed.…”

Food availability modulates temperature‐dependent effects on growth, reproduction, and survival in Daphnia magna

“…This could have important consequences for the resilience of ecosystems, because fast life cycles are hypothesized to promote rapid rates of population growth, and hence instability (Bestion et al, 2015). Moreover, accelerated life history responses were observed only under high levels of food abundance.…”

“…Warmer temperatures can advance reproductive maturation, increase reproduction frequency and shorten life span, leading to an accelerated life cycle (Bestion, Teyssier, Richard, Clobert, & Cote, 2015). Warmer temperatures can advance reproductive maturation, increase reproduction frequency and shorten life span, leading to an accelerated life cycle (Bestion, Teyssier, Richard, Clobert, & Cote, 2015).…”

Warmer temperatures attenuate the classic offspring number and reproductive investment trade-off in the common lizard, Zootoca vivipara

“…In the context of current climate change, the positive effect of temperature might have important consequences for common lizards' population dynamics. For example, Bestion et al [17] experimentally demonstrated a switch of demographic strategies in a warming experiment conducted in semi-natural conditions. Their results showed that warmer temperatures led to an accelerated pace of life (e.g.…”