Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

Despite the increasing knowledge on the processes involved in the acquisition and development of the gut microbiota in model organisms, the factors influencing early microbiota successions in natural populations remain poorly understood. In particular, little is known on the role of the rearing environment in the establishment of the gut microbiota in wild birds. Here, we examined the influence of the nesting environment on the gut microbiota of Great tits (Parus major) by performing a partial cross-fostering experiment during the intermediate stage of nestling development. We found that the cloacal microbiota of great tit nestlings underwent substantial changes between 8 and 15 days of age, with a strong decrease in diversity, an increase in the relative abundance of Firmicutes and a shift in the functional features of the community. Second, the nesting environment significantly influenced community composition, with a divergence among separated true siblings and a convergence among foster siblings. Third, larger shifts in both microbiota diversity and composition correlated with lower nestling body condition. Our results shed new light on the dynamics of microbial diversity during the ontogeny of avian hosts, indicating that the nest environment continues to shape the gut microbiota during the later stages of nestling development and that the increase in gut diversity between hatching and adulthood may not be as linear as previously suspected. Lastly, the microbiota changes incurred during this period may have implications for nestling body condition which can lead to long-term consequences for host fitness.